The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
Please note, the next Weekly Straights Update will be sent out on Thursday 8th January.
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The USDA WASDE report didn’t give much direction to the market, with minimal changes to figures.
They did increase global ending stocks to a record 131.87MMT for 24/25, which gives an indication of how heavy the market is with soybeans.
Argentinian production was increased to 52MMT from 50MMT, whereas Brazil was left unchanged at 169MMT.
Currently South American weather looks ok and plantings are well away, with Argentina 65% and Brazil 96% complete.
The funds remain short on meal and beans, so an eye needs to be kept on that, as if they decide to pile in to cover a chunk they can move prices quickly.
Realistically, prices do reflect the heavy supplies on the market and offer a good place to be building cover from.
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Nearby availability remains tight into January and with European crushers quite tight through to April, this is keeping old crop prices supported.
New crop prices are holding fairly steady, but both periods look expensive against other proteins – against soya, the south is 73% for Feb/Jul and 69% for Aug/Oct and the north is 82% for Feb/Jul and 74% for Aug/Oct.
Ideally it should be around 60-65% for the south and 65-70% for the north.
As a result of the higher prices, merchants and farmers have been moving into other protein options, so crushers could be ill-advised in holding higher prices and expecting demand to come eventually.
Prices continue to creep lower as pressure builds on crushers to reduce prices, though they are reluctant to discount prices further as they state that domestic demand (in Argentina) will kick in at levels any lower, though this didn’t happen last time until levels were lower.
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Price crept up a little on maize distillers, on the back of slightly poorer currency and also stronger maize prices.
Wheat distiller supply remains tight through the winter and what is available to April is more expensive and looks uncompetitive against other options..
Next summer looks better value for a few distiller options.
Another week unchanged, with good supplies available in home produced sugarbeet in the £220’s.
Imported product is scarce as demand remains poor and shipper won’t commit to vessels understandably.
Last week’s USDA WASDE was a bit of a non-event for wheat, with minimal cuts to European production and Russian exports – though the market still seem to think that the new Russian export figure is too high.
Despite the dropping Russian export forecasts (due to the increased export taxes), prices remain capped somewhat by an increasing Argentinian wheat crop, which is expected to be the third largest on record.
Argentinian prices are currently highly competitive and expected to displace Australia in Asian imports.
There was some additional support to the market recently due to Saudi Arabia purchasing more wheat than they had originally tendered for.
​And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
In 1990, the Soviet Union paid for $3 billion worth of Pepsi with warships and Clarence Birdseye founded his company with $7, which he spent on blocks of ice and an electric fan.
Notes:
All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Historical Product Prices​
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 18/12/2024 (£/t)
​'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 18/12/2024. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
Applications and Data Analytics for Orion developed by Demand Economics Ltd.
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