The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Prices eased back over the week, before a rise was seen on Friday as funds came in for some short covering ahead of a long weekend in the US.
The overall lower trend was despite the USDA WASDE report cutting global ending stocks to 124.3MMT (lower than expected).
They lowered Argentinian crop production to 49MMT, as expected (from 52MMT).
More interesting they kept Brazil the same, whereas some private estimates are at 174MMT.
Improved currency has also helped us.
Weather in South America remains mixed, with some good rains over the weekend in Argentina, but turning slightly hotter and drier next week.
Brazil looks to have a drier window to be able to push on with harvest.
Nearby availability has tightened a little more, in part due to Erith’s breakdown last week and also as most merchants have been moving generally to imported rapemeal nearby, as it offered better value than Liverpool and better availability than Erith.
Erith has re-started as planned, but remains booked up for the next few weeks for collections.
Prices continue to track soya movements, with minimal changes week on week, though more so on new crop levels, than May/Jul.
Overall, looks quite expensive vs soya, especially on old crop, but that is the period where plant maintenance normally takes place both in the UK & EU crush plants.
Stocks remain very tight until the next shipments in April and May, which is keeping any nearby prices that are offered pretty high.
Summer levels do feel like they have been dragged higher by the nearby issues, though they remain at a discount to sugarbeet.
It seems unlikely though there will be an opportunity for summer prices to ease, until better supply is seen nationally.
The UK market remains very tight for both wheat and maize distillers, with Vivergo announcing an immediate two week shutdown and Ensus also on planned maintenance.
Summer offers remain relatively limited on both wheat and maize products, though value when offered looks reasonable on maize, whereas wheat distillers offers look quite expensive, but with a limited supply of wheat distiller pellets, shippers can command this premium.
In the US ethanol production reduced, as margins turned negative again and began discouraging production – mainly down to higher costs of maize and natural gas.
The US have introduced a bill for year-round E15 – which if passed, would allow year-round sales of ethanol blends up to 15% and be supportive for ethanol production (and therefore more maize distillers production).
British sugarbeet remains unavailable and seems increasingly unlikely that a revised offer will be seen.
Demand for fibres as a result of soya hull shortages, has meant there are higher prices for imported sugarbeet and also limited quantity until spring.
There is now a summer offer for imported which will aid with supply, though as seen previously, doesn’t compete against other fibres.
Another week of rangebound UK values.
Last week’s USDA WASDE report reduced US ending stocks of wheat and global ending stocks (to a 9 year low at 257.6MMT), despite a reduction in Chinese imports.
The global ending stock reduction was mainly down to reduced stocks in China.
The market had minimal reaction to these figures, with only an uptick in Chicago values on Friday due to the impending bank holiday on the 17th in the US.
The markets mainly seemed focussed on weather related issues, with the Black Sea region turning a little warmer so the risk of winterkill has eased for now; however the US is set for another cold spell this week and snow cover remains inadequate in some areas.
There have already been some reports of winterkill signs from previous cold weather.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Barbara Cartland insisted on including the title of every one of her 723 novels in her Who’s Who entry and according to her last wishes, Elizabeth Taylor arrived late for her own funeral.
Notes:
All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 19/02/25 (£/t)
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