
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Prices continued to ease back as expected rains in Argentina arrived, although more is needed in certain regions.
21% of the Argentinian crop is rated as poor condition, above the 9% at this time last year.
Private estimates continue to pitch the Brazilian crop at over 172MMT, but slower harvest is being seen due to the rains.
This needs to be watched as the market is quite reliant on a large Brazilian crop to make up for the reduced Argentinian crop.
As with maize, Trumps private talks with the Chinese president seems to have been positive, quelling fears of a resurgence in the trade war for the time being.
Though even if Trump doesn’t de-rail US-Chinese trade with tariffs, US prices may still come under some pressure from more competitive Brazilian exports.
Also worth noting, is that funds have increased their short position for soya meal again, but have continued to increase their long on beans.
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Slight firming on rapemeal as rapeseed values were supported by strengthening veg oil complexes.
Margins remain poor and most crush plants in Europe with the option to switch into soya have done so.
Old crop prices continue to look expensive against soya, whilst new crop looks a little better.
With minimal seed across the UK & Europe, it’s hard to make a case for a large downside.
The only bearish input globally could come from Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, which would impact heavily on the Canadian canola market.
For reference, Canada exports around 68% of their domestically produced canola oil and around 63% of their canola meal to the US – so the US is a big market for them.
Canadian GM rapemeal is already coming into the UK and European markets, but the European market is limited as to how much more they can accept due to restrictions around GM inclusion in rations.
If tariffs are imposed and the US reduces their canola imports, then the price would need to drop back further in order to find other homes, but realistically it would be further afield than the UK/EU, so the price difference may not come to us.
As suspected, Feb/Apr supply has dried up as shippers are fully sold out of their planned shipments and running stocks low in order to avoid having expensive material still in the shed when their new crop material (& discount) come in.
As a result, prices for nearby material when available is at a higher level, which does start to make sugarbeet look a reasonable alternative in some cases.
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Poor ethanol margins continue to keep production steady with lower availability on maize distillers and no availability on wheat distiller pellets until the summer.
US production was expected to drop back this week due to the biting cold they’re experiencing.
There are still distillers meal around, which looks reasonable value against other mid-proteins.
Minimal movement on sugarbeet, which is holding in the £220’s on farm.
This is starting to look more attractive given the difficulties around soya hull supply currently.
Still no imported product as home produced has the market cornered this year.
Minimal change in the grains market, and there’s no real fresh news.
Global wheat crops are estimated by the International Grain Council at 796MMT, unchanged with increases in Australian crops balancing out reductions in Russia.
Some concerns around snow cover for US winter wheat in certain key regions, but not enough to really impact on prices for now.
​And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
On the 17th April 2011, Emmanuel Mutai won the London Marathon. The next day, Geoffrey Mutai won the Boston Marathon. The two men are not related and toothpaste is addictive for bears but toxic for dogs.
Notes:
All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139

Historical Product Prices​
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 22/01/25 (£/t)
​'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 22/01/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR

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