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Orion Farming Monthly Newsletter July 2024

Updated: Jun 26



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Cefetra Market Report: Late June 2024


Another month closer to harvest and at long last it is beginning to feel more like summer, as the rain eases and the sun looks set to stay for a while. In fairness, the majority of spring crops have enjoyed the weather they have faced since being drilled, with enough moisture in the ground now to carry them through to harvest you would hope. For some forward winter crops, perhaps OSR and Barley, the sunshine may be a little late and we could well see some small seeds/low bushels, which can have a big impact on yields. Hopefully the wheats have hung on just enough that this sunshine will help fill grains out, which could result in some reasonable yields… time will tell.


Markets have unfortunately lost ground across the board, with OSR currently around €30-35/t off the highs at time of writing (24th June). Wheat is back around £30 since the end of May, now sub £200 ex farm for Nov. Barley remains around £25 discount to wheat, potentially stretching a little further than that now in some areas. Worth noting that even with the market falling as much as it has, funds have only slightly decreased their long position. (See below image)


(Ceres Analytics, 2024)


The general consensus is that buying from funds exaggerated the move upwards when the Russian weather stories began to look serious, resulting in long positions being built. Now the Russia weather is priced into the market and there is little fresh news coming forward, the market has felt some pressure, with funds selling futures and closing out some positions. Interestingly, it is rumoured that Russia have removed their wheat floor price, which has been in place for quite some time.


Having started at 92 million tonnes, the current production estimate for Russian wheat is anywhere between 75-80 MT.


All eyes will now be focused on the corn belt in the Mid-West (USA), with July being the key growing month for the crop over there. I believe they are already experiencing some hot and dry weather, but have some rains in the forecast. Any issues with corn going forward, added to the reductions in production from Russia (that we are already aware of) may cause another rally/spike in the market. Perhaps not back to the highs we saw towards the end of May, but certainly an improvement from here. Be advised, this may not happen at all – there is a chance values could drop further if no weather issues arise.


Indian wheat exports are another area to keep an eye on, as the nation plans to replenish low stocks this season coming. Import duties are likely to be scrapped after June, allowing mills and traders to purchase grains from other origins.


If we saw £200 for ex farm wheat again, I would suggest topping up some sales, or certainly making a start if you have nothing booked yet! The same with feed barley at £175/180. Current values would be between £187-£195 for Nov wheat, depending on location. Group 1 premiums remain north of £65 at present, with group 2’s around £10 lower. £400 for harvest OSR would be another target for most, the market has some work to do to get back there – currently sitting around £375 ex.


To find out more, please contact the team at Cefetra Grain: Simon Wilcox, Manager – UK Farm Grain Origination, 07774 822507, wilcox@cefetra.co.uk; Josef Grinczer, Farm Grain Buyer, 07712 325197, grinczer@cefetra.co.uk ; Ian Jervis, Farm Grain Buyer, 07497 185361, jervis@cefetra.co.uk



 

 

 


 


 

 

Orion Suppliers Latest Promotions posted in June


APM have released their latest promotions which will be running until the end of July and are focussed on relevant products for pre-harvest preparations with bulk discounts on grain store PPE and workshop consumables.






Webbs are offering an additional 20% discount to Orion Members.




Screwfix continue their 5% discount offer to all Orion Members, and please remember to take your Screwfix card in store to obtain the discount.






If you haven't yet got the Orion App and want to find the latest supplier promotions together with a lot of other features, please click on the button and fill out the contact details at the bottom of this page or contact Adam Donaldson on 07907 581094 or adam@ofg.org.uk


Suppliers, if you would like to ensure all your details are up to date, and add in any promotional material for Orion Members, then please get in touch with Adam or fill in the contact details at the bottom of this page.


 

 



Q3 Minerals

Suppliers have been invited to tender for the Group’s Q3 minerals. Members will be informed once all the tenders have been submitted and a decision has been made.


Bagged feed deliveries from GLW

GLW have enlisted the services of a specialist distribution business located near their mill in Leicestershire. Whilst there should be little visible difference, what it means is that there will be set days for deliveries into each county. For example, deliveries into Oxfordshire, Gloucestershire and Buckinghamshire will be on Tuesdays and Thursdays each week. Please be aware that GLW still need seven days lead time for all bagged deliveries.


Game Feed

Just a quick reminder that this year’s game feed tender has once again been awarded to Keepers Choice, Duffields. Orders can be placed through the office, with their representative Richard Leach 07831 545035, or if you prefer with their customer service department. For members who live south of the M4 please use 01227 723838, for  members north of the M4 please use 01508 470661. When placing orders please state your membership number, contact details, the name of your veterinary practice, farm access (artic or rigid) and unloading facilities. Please allow 5-7 working days for delivery.


Compound Feed

In the lead up to the new compound feed tender year that starts on the 1st September, Richard Greasley from ForFarmers will be contacting all members in Area B (SW of the M40), to ascertain whether those members will be buying the compound feed from them. This is so they have a clearer picture of the tonnage of raw materials they will need to buy to ensure they can meet demand. He will also be arranging a site visit with those members who haven’t previously purchased compound feed from ForFarmers to assess vehicular access, the bin site, overhead power cables etc.

  

And Finally…

Totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the month… The Royal Mint made only seven pennies in 1933: three were enough in circulation, but they didn’t want to miss a year and the world’s largest key collection includes keys to the White House toilets, Mozart’s wine cellar and Hitler’s bunker.


For more details on any matter raised in the Feed & Livestock section, please contact Joe in the office: Joe Cobb, Feed & Livestock Manager,  01865 393 139


 


Vale Training Services

Course Availability for February and March 2024. Click HERE to book through our website or contact us at Vale Training Services Ltd., Marsh Hill Farm, Marsh, Aylesbury, HP17 8ST.

Tel: 01296 612201. Email: info@valetraining.co.uk





 




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