Sep 123 min read

Weekly Straights Update: 12th September 2024

The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.

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Hipro Soya

Supply & demand for the US crop looks good with fair weather forecast.
Dry weather in South America has brought with it delayed plantings which funds may try and rally off the back of.
Water levels in Argentina are low meaning vessels are being light loaded and Europe are currently stockpiling material with the impending EUDR regulations, which is increasing the nearby premiums.
The recent rally in the market was partly due to the anti-dumping investigation between China and Brussels which could take a year to resolve.

Erith is not a nearby seller which is creating a shortage of rapemeal and supporting prices.
EU crush plants are looking to switch from rape to soya as there is a better crush margin, which will reduce supply and tighten the market even more.
Imports of rapemeal are not competing against cheaper domestic material and EUDR will add a natural bid and tighten the mid-protein market.
Crush for Feb/Apr is looking tight and sees the May/Jul period being very sticky price-wise.
With an overall bullish feel, if levels work in the ration, then cover may be prudent.

The local market in South America is paying big money as they are short of fibre, which in turn means they are more reluctant to export.
Supply is expected to remain tight here in the UK with levels firming as a result.
Regardless of a firmer market, soya hulls still remain a good value fibre source for the ration.

Distillers look good value as a mid-protein option, with maize distillers looking exceptionally good value.
Wheat still has a bit to ease back, compared with home grown materials being very competitive against imported.

The market is in a state of status quo with some traders not having traded any material in 2-3 months.
UK supply seems to be satisfied with home produced material meaning shippers are forced to send material elsewhere rather than the UK.
Sugarbeet remains an expensive fibre option that is rarely featuring in many rations.

Despite strong Black Sea exports, support in the grains market came from persistent dryness in the US Midwest, some price stability for Black Sea wheat and an improved US wheat exports outlook.
In Russia, wheat exports for August were estimated at 5.2MMT, slightly below the record 5.3MMT shipped last year.
The recent stability in prices reported for the major wheat exporters has partially alleviated further pressure on global wheat markets.
The wheat harvest in Ukraine was completed last week, earlier than usual and has been estimated at 21.6MMT.
A strengthening of sterling has hindered further appreciation of the UK feed wheat futures.
Overall a pretty neutral feel to the market, but levels do seem to be creeping.

And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….

37 is the 12th prime number and73 is the 21st prime number and 2015 is a palindrome in binary: 11111011111.

Notes:

All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.

For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139

Historical Product Prices

'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $

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