The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Prices continued up over the past week due to reported Chinese buying and also suspected short covering as a result of the stock market sell off.
Funds are close to their record short position and it’s possible that some traders who were selling on the stock market were then buying in on the soybean futures.
Some rain and cooler weather has meant US crop conditions improved slightly with an increase of 1% in good-excellent to 68% and still ahead of last year at 54%.
Farmers across the US and South America still remain reluctant sellers, with prices in the US below the cost of production.
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Prices have firmed up as crushers are well sold for the next month or two and it seems unlikely they will drop back unless very slow offtakes are seen.
There are continued reductions in the EU crop with the latest pitched at 17.27MMT.
The UK harvest progresses well with 73% done, vs the 5 year average of 29%.
Prices are still being capped by the wide oilseeds market, but should fund activity increase in soybeans been seen (likely to be short covering given the position they hold) rapeseed prices could follow to take advantage.
Prices for Feb/Apr seem slightly more reasonable with values being around the 65-68% mark against soya in the south and 71-78% for the north.
Prices have remained relatively similar over the past week, with continued slow farmer selling at origin keeping a floor to prices, along with offering good value against sugarbeet still.
It still looks a good option for cover.
Some lower levels have been offered on maize distillers in the past week as shippers look to encourage buying in order to put together a book, making it look more attractive in the market.
At origin, prices remain steady as good production & margins are matched by good export & domestic demand, resulting in a stagnant market.
Still plenty of Vivergo distillers around, with good prices offered nearby that look good value against other options.
Same story as previous weeks with minimal change overall.
Winter home produced prices are expected to be in the £220’s with a big crop and shippers still seem hesitant to put in place any big programmes with the poor demand that’s been seen of late.
Still looks expensive against hulls, but it does offer a non-soya option for 2025 for those wishing to take cover and avoid the EUDR issue.
Prices still remain stuck between poor European/UK crops and large crops in the US.
The US harvest is now at 88% complete, whilst spring wheat conditions remain at 74% good-excellent (vs 41% last year) and harvest getting started slowly.
US wheat remains competitive for export against EU prices, which has been keeping a cap on price rallies, along with Russian pricing as well.
However Russian farmers seem to becoming more reluctant sellers as margins tighten/turn negative, suggesting a floor to their prices.
Russian exports were down 29% year-on-year, but up 7% vs the 5 year average.
French and German crops that are yet to be harvested are suffering unwanted rains, with France already expected to have the smallest wheat crop since 1980.
​And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
After feeding near an M&M’s factory in 2012, French bees started producing blue and green honey and Wimbledon keeps its tennis balls at a temperature of exactly 20 deg C.
Notes:
All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Historical Product Prices​
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 07/08/2024 (£/t)
​'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 07/08/2024. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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