Orion Farming Monthly Newsletter July 2026
- Stuart Goodinson
- Jul 1
- 8 min read
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It was great to meet so many of you at Cereals 26, held at Diddly Squat Farm. The event had a real buzz about it and enthusiasm didn’t seem to be dampened even by the atrocious weather on day two.
Tim and his team at County Insurance Services Ltd were very supportive of Orion, introducing us to potential new members as well as providing excellent food and refreshements.
We had lots of constructive discussion with Orion members.
I asked as many members as possible how Orion could do better for the membership and there were some interesting ideas, which I will certainly be following up on.
’I am always keen to hear any feedback – good or bad!
I spoke to a number of farmers who were potentially going to join us as members and I also investigated potential new suppliers.
Also at Cereals, Orion Member and Board Member, James Florey performed again with BGT winning Hawkstone Choir!
Here I am pictured with Tim on Day 1 before the rain arrived!
Written by Stuart Goodinson GM
Newsletter topics for July 2026
Fertiliser Tax
The UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is scheduled to be implemented on January 1, 2027. The tax is based on the date the fertiliser formally enters the UK Customs territory, rather than the date it is physically delivered to the farm. Some industry groups are warning the Cbam levy could add a further 7-30% to costs. There is much lobbying going on to persuade the govt to delay its implementation, but no decision to postpone at this stage has been made.
My view is that there will be a large, last minute demand to get fertiliser on farm before the tax hits, which means that there will be very little delivery capacity in Nov/Dec 26 or early 27.
Wildfarmed
Myself, Nick Philps and Becci Berry attended an interesting and lively farm event and walk hosted by members Colleymore Farm & Wildfarmed Nr Farringdon.
The event was showcasing the Wildfarmed farming protocols and progress they have made around getting their products into mainstream consumption via the major UK supermarkets.
Feed and Livestock
Twine & Netwrap
Just a brief reminder that with harvest rapidly approaching, prices for twine and netwrap for this season are held at the office from several suppliers, so in order to purchase your requirements at the most competitive price, please ensure you place your orders through the office.
Lead Times
Although this is a subject that has been raised on these pages in the past, it’s worth mentioning it again, but with particular reference to minerals, Envirolac and Dynalac. Although the current suppliers of minerals state that the lead time is 7 working days, over time that figure has slowly crept up to 10+ working days. With regards to Envirolac the lead time can be up to 14 days and Dynalac is again 10+ working days. For those members who take any of these products, please bear this in mind when planning your requirements.
Palletised deliveries
Over a recent period of time, several members have sent photographic evidence to the office of damaged bags when unloading palletised goods, which are forwarded onto the supplier for credit. This it would appear is now not good enough, as hauliers are becoming a lot firmer as to what liability they will accept as their responsibility. To that end, when pallets are unloaded it’s vital, the delivery is thoroughly checked and if there is any damage, please ensure that it is recorded on the POD ticket at the time of unloading, thereby making the haulage company aware that there is damaged product for which they are liable. Nevertheless, photographic evidence still reinforces the case.
Nutrimol
For members feeding a straw based ration to cattle, perhaps with the inclusion of a product such as biscuit meal and are looking to improve palatability and intake, the current Group supplier of molasses recommends a product called Nutrimol. It offers a well-balanced combination of both sugars and protein at a cost-effective price. It is a free-flowing liquid that is easy to handle in all temperatures and in addition is a very effective de-duster. Full details and prices are held at the office.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the month…….
Uncle Ben’s rice was invented in Britain by a German chemist and 94%
of the Earth’s oceans are in permanent pitch darkness.
Full Supplier Catalogue
Please see our list of recommended suppliers to the Orion Farming Group. You can either contact suppliers directly and quote your membership number, or call the office to discuss your requirements.
A full list of suppliers, along with the ability to search by product area, is available in the supplier catalogue: https://members.ofg.org.uk/MemberSection/SupplierCatalogue.aspx
Cefetra Grain Market Report
Early June Market Pressure
Wheat and barley values eased by around £10/t for new crop at the beginning of June, as some commodity markets began to disconnect from oil price movements. Further selling followed news that a deal had been agreed between the US and Iran. Although questions remain over how long the agreement will hold, markets — including oil — reacted as though the deal was close to being finalised.
The Memorandum of Understanding was due to be signed by all parties in Geneva on Friday 19 June. In response, early June saw near-record selling of futures by speculative funds, adding further pressure to markets. Index funds have also been selling some commodities, as inflation risk would be reduced if the MoU holds.
Wheat Outlook
June is usually a bearish month for both MATIF and CBOT wheat as harvest approaches, so there may be further short-term downside. This is being reinforced by reasonable EU carry-in stocks for next season, excluding the UK.
·UK prices could face additional pressure if we need to export wheat this coming season, as we are currently around £10/t too expensive versus France.
It remains difficult to estimate UK production until combines start moving across the regions. Some areas look very well, while reports from the East of the country are less encouraging.
At the time of writing on 24 June, markets had firmed slightly on the back of the European heatwave.
Temperatures of up to 40°C across large parts of Europe are unlikely to benefit corn and sunflower crops at this stage, so this remains an important watch point.
Oilseed Rape and Vegetable Oils
OSR prices moved lower alongside oil following the recent news. However, longer-term support is developing for EU OSR, with the 2026/27 supply and demand outlook looking very tight. Canadian supply is also more likely to flow into China than into the EU.
The current heatwave is also firming EU sunoil prices, which is lifting the MATIF OSR contract at the time of writing.
Longer-Term Supportive Factors
On a more positive note, the 2026/27 EU wheat supply and demand outlook no longer looks as heavy as it did a few months ago, and some weather concerns remain.
There is also a “Super” or “Godzilla” El Niño developing, which could have detrimental effects on countries such as Australia, where crop area may already be reduced following fuel and fertiliser issues. However, the same El Niño pattern could boost production in the US and Argentina through above-average rainfall, so one effect may offset the other.
European Heatwave Risks
There are concerns around the heatwave expected to affect France, Spain, Poland and possibly Germany, with temperatures of up to 40°C forecast in some areas.
At this late stage of the season, the impact on winter barley and wheat is uncertain. However, spring crops and corn are more likely to suffer if the heatwave is prolonged. French corn area is already forecast to be down by around 20%, so this is another factor to monitor closely.
Corn competes with UK feed wheat in certain rations, so tighter corn supply could support UK wheat prices over the longer term.
Global Demand and Trade
Further afield, China’s recent $17 billion trade agreement to purchase US agricultural products is likely to support US soya and corn values if buying continues.
However, Chinese consumption does not appear to be increasing significantly at this stage. As a result, increased buying from the US may come at the expense of Argentina or Brazil, leaving the overall global outlook broadly unchanged.
Fertiliser market update.
Urea
Increased cargo volumes from the Middle East.
Rising Chinese exports putting pressure on the international market.
Expectations of a recovery in deferred or delayed demand next month.
Potential price support and signs that the market may be approaching a price floor ("bottom incoming").
Firmer prices are expected from August onwards.
Phosphates
Sulphur prices remain high, which supports phosphoric acid prices. (Feedstock for Phosphates)
Fertilizer buyers are delaying purchases, apparently expecting weakness in fertilizer-related prices.
Potash (MOP)
Potash market outlook: Stable
Demand is seasonally weak, creating some downward price pressure.
Buyers may seek lower prices, especially for granular MOP (Muriate of Potash).
Standard MOP demand remains strong, providing support to prices.
Suppliers have healthy Q3 order books, making a sharp price fall unlikely.
Significant price increases are also considered unlikely.
AN 34.5 V Limus Urea
AN 34.5
1 tonne contains 345 kg N
£490 ÷ 0.345
= £1.42/kg N
Limus Urea
1 tonne contains 460 kg N
£495 ÷ 0.46
= £1.08/kg N
At £490/t AN versus £495/t Limus Urea, the extra £5/t product cost is more than offset by the higher nitrogen concentration:
24% lower cost per kg of N
£34/ha saving on a 100 kg N application
Additional benefit from reduced volatilisation losses due to LIMUS
Seed- Bartholomews
I now have seed availability and pricing across all crops. I am working with 21 different seed supplier businesses to ensure I can get the right varieties, advice and best prices for you. I asked Christian from Bartholomews to give a summary of his 2026 variety choice thoughts.
Autumn Wheat Variety Focus for the Season Ahead
Choosing the right winter wheat varieties remains one of the most important decisions for the coming season, with the need to balance yield potential, disease resistance, and market requirements. This year’s options across Groups 1 to 4 provide a strong mix of established performers and promising newcomers, although availability of some newer lines—particularly Arlington—is expected to be limited.
Group 1 — Milling
Group 1 pays premiums but needs tight disease and N management.
Arlington: high yield, good disease profile, limited seed, protein needs careful N. Skyfall: consistent quality but prone to yellow rust and sprouting.
Crusoe: reliable export quality, susceptible to brown rust.
KWS Zyatt: strong grain quality, high yellow rust risk.
KWS Vibe: balanced disease profile, consistent in the north.
SY Cheer and RGT Illustrious still give good quality (Illustrious has dropped from the Recommended List).
Group 2 — Breadmaking
Group 2 balances yield and quality but baking consistency varies.
KWS Extase: reliable, disease-resistant.
KWS Palladium: early, septoria-resistant, good water absorption.
Mayflower: early, excellent septoria resistance but vulnerable to yellow rust.
KWS Arnie: high-yielding, early, strong overall disease resistance.
RGT Goldfinch: late-drill option with BYDV tolerance and good untreated performance, but weak straw. KWS Equipe and LG Shergar remain good-performing options but may not meet strict milling specs.
Group 3 — Biscuit/Soft
Group 3 suits biscuit, export, distilling.
Bamford: excellent yield, some sprouting risk.
KWS Solitaire: top yield, distilling-suited, weaker straw and sprouting risk.
KWS Flute: good for the north, yellow rust resistance.
RGT Kingsbury: balanced, strong disease resistance, good agronomics and export potential.
Group 4 — Feed
Feed wheats lead on yield; new entries improve disease resistance.
LG Challenger and LG Defiance: very high yields, strong disease resistance (Defiance strong untreated).
KWS Fowlmere: very high yield, good fusarium resistance, export potential.
KWS Aintree: high output, more yellow rust-susceptible.
KWS Dawsum: dependable, stiff straw, solid resistance;
Graham: consistent, early, good yellow rust and fusarium resistance.
Champion, KWS Scope, LG Beowulf, SY Insitor: high output but watch rust, straw strength, sprouting.
www.bartholomews.co.uk
Orion Farming Group AGM
Thanks to all those who attended this month’s AGM. Your support is greatly appreciated. Accounts for YE October 2025 were presented, Ashley Poyton, from Vineyard Accountants talked through them and answered a few questions, they were then formally approved by those present. 2 Board Members, Nick Philp and Steve Maine were due to retire by rotation, both but them selves for a further term which was approved by those present.
Prior to the AGM meeting Andrew Stilwell from Bartholomews presented information around crop production costs related to the fluctuating fertiliser market and Edward Ernshaw, from Just Farm talked through the latest details of the SFI scheme. Both speakers were very well received.
Photo shows Ashley Poyton, Accountant, Becci Berry, Chair and Stuart Goodinson, GM
