WEEKLY MARKET & PRICE NEWS Arable Products| Fuel & Energy | Feed & Livestock 15.10.26

FEED MARKET AT A GLANCE

GBP/USD 1.3247 | GBP/EUR 1.1833 | Brent Crude $105.63

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Reports from our desks.

Arable Products

Stuart Goodinson

Fuel & Energy

Phil Shirley

Feed & Livestock

Joe Cobb

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Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.

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ARABLE PRODUCTS

• Urea remains stable at around £468/t. Nitram around £480 but likely to increase soon.

• Oil Seed Rape crops – I am informed that around 10% nationally and 20% in our region has failed due to dry conditions and flee beetle

• Avadex products – there may be some supply issues in the next week or two. We will do our best to fulfil requirements

FUEL AND ENERGY

Average prices from Orion’s two main fuel suppliers, w/c Weds 7th October

Fuel	Average price
Gas Oil	112.14pplex VAT (No change from previous week)
Kerosene	107.09ppl ex VAT (Up 2.56ppl from previous week)
DERV	158.04ppl ex VAT (Down 1.20ppl from previous week)

These are average prices rather than live quotations. Orion normally receives updated prices from suppliers by approximately 10.30am each working day, so please contact the office for current pricing.

Delivery lead times

Delivery lead times continue to be good at approximately 3 to 5 working days, depending on supplier and delivery area.

However, these are expected to increase as autumn and winter kerosene demand starts to build.

Kerosene

With autumn now here, it is worth checking kerosene tank levels and planning requirements before seasonal demand increases.

For electricity enquiries, contact Stuart Goodinson at stuart@ofg.org.uk.

FEED & LIVESTOCK

Current Orion pricing

Notes: All figures in this section are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds

WHAT IS DRIVING THE FEED MARKET?

Currency/Geopolitical

Not much change week on week, conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea continue. In the Middle

East we have seen continued blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran threatening to block other “illegal”

routes unless their demands were met. Donald Trump had announced their would be not further strikes on

Iran before the mid-term elections in early November, citing productive talks. Trump also announced a

ceasefire on energy infrastructure between Ukraine & Russia, which promptly fell apart. The strikes in the

Black Sea and on both countries continue, with shipping almost impossible from that area.

Sterling maintained it’s level vs the Euro, as the political instability and concerns around finances in

Europe continued. UK growth looks set to be better than anticipated according to the IMF, which will help

hold our currency steady.

Grains

Wheat/Barley

A fairly quiet week, with minimal news for most of the week. The USDA report on Friday was viewed as mostly neutral, with US ending stocks increased slightly but global stocks down a little. For the most part, it was dragged lower on Friday by the maize market (see below). It continues to look like there will not be a “grain corridor” or ceasefire agreed in the Black Sea region anytime soon, and so Ukrainian ministers are trying to look for alternative export routes, as current routes make their grain uncompetitive in the market. Russia have also been trying to find alternative routes out for their grain, shipping one vessel of wheat through one of their Artic ports, though similar to Ukraine, this costs significantly more than the traditional routes and capacity is much lower. The conflict in this region is likely to remain the biggest influence on pricing for the time being. Looking further ahead, we could see El Niño cause dryness in Australia which has in the past caused much smaller crops there. 

Maize

Prices eased back, mainly driven by Friday’s USDA WASDE figures, which were surprisingly bearish. The market had been anticipating a cut to corn yields, but the USDA increased it from 178.5bpa to 181.2bpa. This put production up by 234 million bushels, and ending stocks up by 282 million bushels as the increase in supply outstripped any increases to demand. This puts stocks to use ratios from 9.7% to 11.3%. This did put some pressure on prices, and saw funds reduce their long positions. Wetter weather has slowed harvest progress in some regions, in particular Hurricane Isaias in the south east of the country, whilst others will have been able to make some better progress.

Proteins

Hipro Soya

Soya meal prices continued to be supported through most of last week for a couple of regions. We saw record US meal exports initially pushing Chicago prices up. Continued rains hampered harvest progress in some regions of the US, whilst others benefitted from better rains. There are some concerns around quality and mould due to the moisture. Brazil are pushing ahead with their soybean planting, with progress at 19.77% complete vs 11.55% on average – conditions have been ideal so far, but some drier conditions are expected in November which could prove tricky for crop development. We are starting to see Europe stockpile soya ahead of EUDR coming in at the end of the year, which has also kept prices firmer nearby due to increased demand. This could result in a drop off in buyers come January, depending on how EUDR pans out, which could pressure prices. Additionally the impact of El Niño is likely to be felt with South American soya crops – bringing moisture to Argentina (which has seen bumper crops in previous El Niño’s, though be aware flooding could cause issues with harvest), and a mixed forecast to Brazil (could be dry in some key producing regions, and wet in others). Friday’s USDA WASDE report was deemed slightly bullish by the market, pushing prices up as well. Yields were actually increased back to 53.1bpa from 52.8bpa, which in turn increased production by 27 million bushels. A large chunk of this increase was swallowed up by increased exports for the US, leaving only a 5 million increase to ending stocks. All of this did seem to be above trade expectations, but the market still moved higher. Funds remain extremely long of soya meal, and had increased their long position on beans & oil.

Rapemeal

Prices have been mainly steady to slightly lower, as rapemeal adjusts itself vs soymeal pricing. Currently Erith rapemeal for winter sits at 66% of the hipro soya price, and 64% for next summer. Liverpool sits at 75% for winter and 75% for next summer also. European production is estimated at 19.7 million tonnes for 2026/27, which would be a 800,000T drop from last season, but not too dissimilar to previous years. The UK is expected to put in 10% more than last year, but figures are yet to be confirmed. The only caveat with these numbers, is give the dry weather we have had here in parts of the UK this autumn & across parts of Europe, is whether planted crops are doing well or are struggling with lack of moisture. River levels in Europe are still very low, impacting on exports that were coming out of Europe & Ukraine too. Truck logistics are incredibly busy in Europe as a result. This has caused the paper market to be very all over the place. Paper contracts are hard to execute (where the buyer wants to collect the physical seed off the paper contract), as the material is offered in a region where boats cannot get to on the river, and trucks are fully booked already. Demand in Europe is still good, with the incoming EUDR at the end of the year.

Distillers

Still no word from Ensus on it’s future, we should hear something next week either way. They are due to shut at the end of October as it stands. Imported distillers prices are back a little bit, as maize prices eased back due to the large crop in the US. US prices were actually firmer, but distillers in the UK look uncompetitive vs other options, so we may be seeing a slight readjustment to find some demand.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

Prices are firmer due to reduced offers from shippers. Demand has been strong due to the lack of fibre and forage both in the UK and across Europe. Cover is still recommended, as supply is unlikely to increase.

Sugarbeet

Still nothing from Trident for any home produced offer on sugarbeet, it is looking increasingly unlikely there will be a farm offer. Nothing much offered on imported either, leaving the options as soya hulls for the most part.

NEED A CURRENT PRICE?

Commodity, fuel and input prices can change quickly.

For today’s member prices, availability or delivery information, please contact the Orion Farming Group office.

Market information and prices are provided as a guide and may change without notice. Final prices may vary according to product availability, quantity, delivery location and haulage requirements.