WEEKLY MARKET & PRICE NEWS Arable Products| Fuel & Energy | Feed & Livestock 22.10.26

FEED MARKET AT A GLANCE

GBP/USD 1.3375 | GBP/EUR 1.1920 | Brent Crude $110.31

---

Reports from our desks.

Arable Products

Stuart Goodinson

Fuel & Energy

Phil Shirley

Feed & Livestock

Joe Cobb

.

Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.

---

ARABLE PRODUCTS

Chemicals

• Avadex granules are in short supply. Gowan, the manufacturer, will not be producing any more product this year. At the moment there is good availability of Avadex in the liquid form

Fertiliser

• CBAM Tax. Good news. Based on the illustrative rates published by HMRC, on Friday the tax on imported fertiliser is lower than we thought. The indicative rates from HMRC are illustrative only at this stage, but what we can see is that imported Ammonium Nitrate (AN) would attract a CBAM cost of approximately £1.50/t. and imported Urea would attract a CBAM cost of approximately £2.00/t.

• Increased gas prices and continuing hostility in Russia and the gulf have caused Ammonium Nitrate and Urea to creep up.

  • Nitram £485/t Imported 34.5% £475 Urea £478/t

FUEL AND ENERGY

Average prices from Orion’s two main fuel suppliers, w/c Weds 14th October

Fuel	Average price
Gas Oil	112.13ppl ex VAT (No change from previous week)
Kerosene	108.88ppl ex VAT (Up 1.79 ppl from previous week)
DERV	158.31ppl ex VAT (Up 0.27 ppl from previous week)

These are average prices rather than live quotations. Orion normally receives updated prices from suppliers by approximately 10.30am each working day, so please contact the office for current pricing.

Delivery lead times

Delivery lead times continue to be good at approximately 3 to 5 working days, depending on supplier and delivery area.

However, these are expected to increase as autumn and winter kerosene demand starts to build.

Kerosene

With autumn now here, it is worth checking kerosene tank levels and planning requirements before seasonal demand increases.

For electricity enquiries, contact Stuart Goodinson at stuart@ofg.org.uk.

FEED & LIVESTOCK

Current Orion pricing

Notes: All figures in this section are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds

WHAT IS DRIVING THE FEED MARKET?

Currency/Geopolitical

Strikes between Russia & Ukraine continue to be exchanged, targeting all aspects of infrastructure,

including cargo vessels in the Black Sea and oil facilities. Trump opted to suspend some sanctions against

Russia, in order to continue negotiating peace talks with them, stating he did not want to “do anything that

will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table”. Whether it has anything to do with the US

striking a deal to import Russia deal the other week, who knows…?! These developments make it trickier to

see how any peace talks will pan out, given Trump doesn’t seem to know what side he is on.

In the Middle East, oil shipments continue to reduce as the number of ships in & around the Strait of

Hormuz has reached a record high, keeping crude oil futures around the $100-110 mark.

GBP/Sterling has maintained a good level against the Euro, due to protests in France over the rising

living costs and reduced public services, including education. The protests over the weekend spilled over

into violent clashes and looting. The political situation there looks very uncertain, resulting in a weaker Euro.

Versus the US Dollar, GBP is recovered slightly to $1.33, due to sell-offs in AI stocks.

Grains

Wheat/Barley

Not too much change on wheat & barley, as the Black Sea conflict continues to rumble on, with no

end in sight. Shipping in the Black Sea is nigh on impossible now, and Russia seem uninterested in

discussing a grain corridor. US wheat prices have eased as they come under pressure from Argentinian

wheat prices, with both then in turn putting some pressure on European values. Further direction will likely

continue to depend on the Black Sea situation

Maize

Funds continued to sell off their long position of corn, as harvest progress in the US improved and

the weather for the coming weeks looks positive for harvest too. US harvest now sits at 44% complete,

though that does remain 8% behind the average pace, but the assumption is that it will continue to catch up

over the next 2 weeks. Also pressuring prices is attention beginning to turn to South American plantings,

with Brazil around 44% complete with there 1st corn crop.

Proteins

Hipro Soya

Prices eased back further on forward values, as harvest pressure continues to mount in the US.

Nearby prices are more steady due to tighter availability in the UK. US harvest has progressed well the past

week, moving up to 64%, only 1% behind the 5-year average pace. Weather there looks good for the next two

weeks, so should continue to permit harvest to continue. The market was disappointed with the EPA

announcement about reallocation of small refinery exemptions, which put pressure on soya meal (more

blending equals more crush & more soymeal). We did also then see poor crush numbers reported, this was

part down to old crop bean tightness and some seasonal maintenance, but again pressured markets. Even

Chinese buying has been unable to excite the market – it’s widely presumed that once China have fulfilled

their US commitments, they will switch back to Brazilian beans.

In Brazil, planting nationally sits at 15.6% complete, which is roughly in line with the average pace.

Central-West regions (including Mato Grosso) account for almost 50% of the country’s soya crop, and has

seen drier than normal weather of late. This has helped plantings progress well, but we will need to see

more rains in order to see good crop establishment and keep prices under some pressure. In Southern

regions, where they produce circa 28% of Brazil’s soya, there is forecast above average rainfall, which could

be detrimental to planting progress or bring in potential of disease risks. Either way, a close watch on

weather and how the crop progresses will be crucial.

With these factors in mind, it still seems sensible to keep putting some cover on, especially nearby,

but also consider further forward if you use a lot. We may well see a bounce in the market at some point,

given the sell off by funds of soybeans (though they still hold a big long position on soymeal).

Rapemeal

Prices continued to ease back, mainly due to soya pressure. Nearby values are lower as we

approach November and more sellers come out of the woodworks, but overall still a premium to winter

runs. River levels for the Rhine have increased recently but there is still a long way to go before we reach normal levels and the shipping issues ease. The above graph demonstrates the struggles we have had with

levels since mid-summer, and how this is very much an ongoing issue, but it may not resolve until

December, and even then that is subject to rainfall.

Looking ahead to next seasons crop, there is some cover being done for Aug/Oct27, on the basis of

the uncertainty surrounding how OSR crops are looking for the coming season given the dry weather we

have had here and across Europe. For the coming Feb/Jul period, a lot of the price movement will depend on

EUDR (if it is delayed, demand in Europe will swap back towards soya), and soya prices too.

Distillers

Minimal news in the market, as the UK waits to hear if the government will continue to support

Ensus. We should hear late this week or next. Imported distillers in the meantime are the only option, with

US prices dropping a bit as the corn harvest progress and pressures corn prices, along with lower soymeal

values. Production is good, whilst demand is a little sluggish now. Wheat distillers remain hard to come by,

with no offers for the winter, and prices offered for next summer looking very dear but reflecting the limited

supplies.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

No change on the market, demand has been and continues to be strong, so supplies are more

limited than a month ago, keeping prices supported. Worth keeping mind that demand for fibres is strong

across the UK and Europe due to the forage situation and lack of sugarbeet.

Sugarbeet

Home produced offers are non-existent, so only imported is available but that is very limited.

Imported prices look very expensive against other fibre options, but as time goes on alternatives may

become limited.

NEED A CURRENT PRICE?

Commodity, fuel and input prices can change quickly.

For today’s member prices, availability or delivery information, please contact the Orion Farming Group office.

Market information and prices are provided as a guide and may change without notice. Final prices may vary according to product availability, quantity, delivery location and haulage requirements.