Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 19th February 2026
- Orion Farming Group
- Feb 19
- 4 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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The USDA report last week was mostly unchanged, with a small increase to Brazilian production, resulting in an increase to world carryout.
US numbers were unchanged from last month.
Prices have been a little firmer, mainly due to a US holiday, the Chinese New Year and a carnival in Brazil, so markets traded in a limited capacity – which typically puts protection premiums into UK prices.
There is some scepticism regarding the additional 8MMT China has promised to buy (according to Trump’s social media posts – China remains tight-lipped on this).
If it was realised it would leave the tightest US carryout seen for a long time, as it would use up almost all of the predicted US ending stocks.
The USDA report also didn’t alter their numbers either to allow for this.
However if China bought this volume from the US, it would mean that whilst CBOT futures would rise, it is likely South American premiums would slide, as they would have to source homes for their new crop beans.
US beans remain at a premium to Brazilian, but China could easily stomach the extra spend in order to get something they need out of the US, (eg. tech exports).
In South America, quality issues seem to be a regular topic for the early Brazilian harvest, due to the rains seen during harvest.
These rains are now also hampering harvest progress.
Argentina is finally getting some beneficial rains, which should help to secure the crop, though conditions slid another 8% to 32% good-excellent.
Estimates range from 46 to 48.5MMT.
Nearby values remain well supported as various shippers await boats at the end of this week and the beginning of next.
Erith is beginning to bring in shipments across the UK in order to supply contracts, but there is no official news regarding a restart as yet.
They offered some summer values last week, with old crop pricing having firmed up, suggesting they are not keen to sell anything quite yet.
New crop looks a bit better, sitting just a few pounds higher than before the shutdown.
Old crop values look pretty dear against soya, with southern prices sitting at around 75-82% of soya and northern values at around 73-82% of soya.
New crop is more sensible, at 61% of soya in the south and 69% in the north.
Prices are still offering the best value in the fibres market and looking likely to continue.
Shippers are continuing to try and run a short book until April, to lessen the stock they carry into new crop discounts, this could provide support to prices if stocks get too tight.
Summer values are hard to judge, as the large bean crop could encourage further price pressure, but also import demand from other countries could put a floor in the market, as seen in previous years.
Nearby distillers are still hard to come by and commanding similar prices to rapemeal.
Further forward it seems the market is content to trade sideways.
US sellers are holding firm in their pricing as they decide what they will do to maximise carbon credits/subsidies.
One of the easiest option for them to achieve this is to stop drying distillers grains, hence the increase in more coming out as wet grains, being sold locally due to the limited shelf life.
There is potential for this to be limited, given the much reduced market for wet product domestically, so plants are also looking at semi-dried options, though this would still not be fit for export.
Logistical issues on US rivers continue, but it remains to be seen if there is enough of a thaw in March/early April to ease up freight before plants begin annual shutdown in April.
Unchanged market, still limited stock and no expected change anytime soon.
Summer availability is expected to be tight and prices reflect that.
It’s too early to gauge next winter, but initial suggestions are of a lower acreage and similar pricing to this year.
Again, minimal change week on week for London futures and physical grain values.
Competition globally for export business remains strong, though with higher demand for maize, it may provide more of a base for other grains.
The UK struggles to compete for exports, whilst import figures into the UK remain strong.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….Harris tweed is not made on the Isle of Harris; it’s made on the Isle of Lewis and in any one week, London Underground escalators travel the equivalent of twice round the world.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 04.02.26 Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
