WEEKLY MARKET & PRICE NEWS Arable Products| Fuel & Energy | Feed & Livestock 29.10.26

FEED MARKET AT A GLANCE

GBP/USD 1.3328 | GBP/EUR 1.1954 | Brent Crude $115.33

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Reports from our desks.

Arable Products

Stuart Goodinson

Fuel & Energy

Phil Shirley

Feed & Livestock

Joe Cobb

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Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.

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ARABLE PRODUCTS

Arable

• Most crops have emerged well and are growing away. Some of the earlier drilled crops have struggled with dry conditions but are improving with the rain. We are seeing increasing slug pressure.

Fertiliser

• Urea and Nitrogen have remained stable in the last week. Gas prices are increasing again so likely to push Urea and Nitrogen up in the next week.

  • Urea £470/t

  • Nitram £480/t

  • Imported AN £470/t

Chemicals

• Higher demand for slug pellets – good availability of all brands

• No serious stock issues this week

 

FUEL AND ENERGY

Average prices from Orion’s two main fuel suppliers, w/c Weds 21st October

Fuel	Average price
Gas Oil	112.43ppl ex VAT (Up 0.30 ppl from previous week)
Kerosene	108.28ppl ex VAT (Down 0.60 ppl from previous week)
DERV	158.42ppl ex VAT (Down 0.11ppl from previous week)

These are average prices rather than live quotations. Orion normally receives updated prices from suppliers by approximately 10.30am each working day, so please contact the office for current pricing.

Delivery lead times

Delivery lead times continue to be good at approximately 3 to 5 working days, depending on supplier and delivery area.

However, these are expected to increase as autumn and winter kerosene demand starts to build.

Kerosene

With autumn now here, it is worth checking kerosene tank levels and planning requirements before seasonal demand increases.

For electricity enquiries, contact Stuart Goodinson at stuart@ofg.org.uk.

FEED & LIVESTOCK

Current Orion pricing

Notes: All figures in this section are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds

WHAT IS DRIVING THE FEED MARKET?

Currency/Geopolitical

Positivity around Russia/Ukraine peace talks seemed to keep things under pressure the past week.

So far, all that has been confirmed is that trilateral talks between the two sides & the US are planned for

November, which may include maritime & energy ceasefires. We have been in this type of situation before

and nothing has come of it, so a reminder that nothing is guaranteed and strikes continue in the meantime.

As it stands, shipping from the Black Sea is near impossible as attacks are common.

In the Middle East, Houthis are continuing to target Saudi Arabian airports, whilst Trump has ruled

out strikes on Iran (likely this is because mid-term elections are next week, and this stance may put some

pressure crude oil prices, which would be popular with voters). Iran have continued to attack vessels in the

Strait of Hormuz, so crude oil prices have been well supported, pushing up to $115. Israel are voting in

elections today, with Netanyahu facing his first one since the October 7th attacks – both of the front runners

have seemingly similar stances on Gaza/Hamas so peace in the Middle East may still be a long way off.

Grains

Wheat/Barley

Russian export figures surprised the market, seemingly having managed to export more grain via

alternative routes than had been estimated. This alongside the peace talks due between Russia & Ukraine,

meant that wheat prices came under a fair amount of pressure. Physical prices have been slower to respond

vs the futures, as growers are reluctant tot discount but prices are easing. It seems likely that the market will

continue to be led by the news from the Black Sea.

Maize

Prices continued to be pressured as US harvest pressure mounted, and funds continued to reduce

their long positions. Weather in the US has been much more friendly towards harvest progress, at 60%

complete. This remains a bit behind the average of 66%, but increased 16% week-on-week. Weather

continues to look good for harvesting so this should continue to progress well. In the Southern hemisphere,

Brazil are 58% complete on their first corn crop plantings, which is slightly ahead of average paces.

Proteins

Hipro Soya

Just as the harvest pressure was beginning to diminish on soya prices, we had further pressure on

prices came from a different angle. Brazilian presidential elections on Monday morning provided a big

surprise, with the current President Lula winning. This weighed heavily on the Brazilian currency, as he is not

expected to reduce borrowing (he is left-wing). With lower Brazilian currency, it means it’s cheaper to buy

Brazilian beans for importers, which in turn pressured Chicago soya prices to try and continue to compete.

Funds have reduced soybean longs, but continue to hold similar long positions on soymeal.

Harvest progress in the US has continued to be good, with weather remaining favourable (and

forecast to continue). Progress is now at 79% complete, now 2% ahead of average. China have been buying

regularly from the US the past week, but the market has not been reacting, potentially as they fully expect

demand to swap over to Brazil shortly, and there are questions whether China will buy the full commitment.

They have bought approximately 15 million tonnes so far, and committed to buy 25 million tonnes.

The market is beginning to focus more on South American plantings & weather conditions now, as

Brazilian plantings are still romping ahead (nationally 40% complete, Mato Grosso 75% complete), keeping

around 4% ahead of the average pace. Conditions look good for the time being, but their will be a focus on

rainfall through the next few months, should we see any El Nino-induced dryness in northern Brazil.

Rapemeal

Prices were pressured by the soya market mainly. River levels in Europe have improved, but are

forecast to drop back into early-mid November before rising again all being well. Logistical challenges do

still remain as barges still cannot load to full capacity and are likely to for the next month or two. There are

still reservations on what the situation will be come January. Availability on seed from eastern Europe is still

very tricky, and any Australian seed is heading to China, so European supply will stay tight it seems

(especially as more demand will switch to rapemeal due to EUDR). As mentioned, pressure is mainly

coming from soya downwards movement, and further pressure is likely to come from any further soya

pressure or if there is any improvement in the Black Sea.

Distillers

There is still no news from Ensus as to whether they run beyond October. Imported prices are more

limited, due to lack of commitment from buyers meaning shippers are reluctant to plan additional vessels.

Prices are firmer as a result. Maize prices dropping has pressured US distillers prices, but this hasn’t been

reflected in the UK market due to availability. Wheat distillers remain impossible to find for the winter, due

to the limited offers there have been.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

Not much change on the market, as offers for winter are more limited and therefore prices are

holding steady. A lot of cover has been done already, so it seems unlikely prices will ease, especially given

the lack of sugarbeet offered, and the price of any imported product that is offered

Sugarbeet

No home produced offers, only imported, which looks very expensive against other alternatives.

Demand has already been swapping to soya hulls, and this looks likely to continue.

NEED A CURRENT PRICE?

Commodity, fuel and input prices can change quickly.

For today’s member prices, availability or delivery information, please contact the Orion Farming Group office.

Market information and prices are provided as a guide and may change without notice. Final prices may vary according to product availability, quantity, delivery location and haulage requirements.