Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 12th December 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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China’s purchases from the US are still ongoing (still only 23% of the 12MMT pledged), but it’s not enough to feed the bull’s appetite, especially when Brazilian prices are lower and are sweeping up the ‘rest of the world ‘ sales.
There are now rumours of shipments due this month to China from the Gulf, but again, it’s too little too late.
US sales are around 40% behind last year and export inspections are 45% behind last year.
Also pressuring prices is some decent rains in central Brazil as planting wraps up, which will help to ease any concerns that had started to appear.
Brazilian production estimates had been lowered privately to 177.2MMT due to the dry start, but still above the last USDA figure of 175MMT.
Argentina are around 44.7% complete on planting, overall about 1.1% behind the 5 year average.
The Argentinian government are planning to cut export taxes on beans and meal by a couple of percent, which has added some pressure.
Erith remains well sold until February and this nearby sold out position may roll forward. Liverpool are also well sold until the New Year.
Logistical challenges have been arising during the past week at both plants, which is keeping imported meal/pellet prices supported at other docks.
Canadian canola crops looks set to be bigger than estimates and this is putting pressure on forward imported prices.
Against soya Erith sits at 63% for the winter and 61% for the summer, Liverpool is at 72% and 71% respectively.
Another week of minimal news, but today’s announcement of lower export taxes for Argentinian bean products could mean a bit more pressure for next summer pricing.
Demand is expected to remain strong, given they offer good value vs other fibres.
Nearby prices remain firm as maize distillers is seeing good demand due to issues at Ensus.
No news on the future of Ensus, which doesn’t seem positive at this point.
Wheat distillers and summer maize distillers remain steady, but look a bit dear against other protein options.
No new news again – same old story of reduced supply so prices remain high, but demand is sluggish too.
Further negotiations between Russia and Ukraine which remains fairly mixed, with skirmishes in the Black Sea threatening to send grain prices higher, due to the risk of exporting from Black Sea ports.
Despite that the market does move lower overall due to heavy supplies globally.
Russa/Ukraine feels like the only bullish factor at this point, but this still feels like it might be outweighed by decent winter crops in the western hemisphere.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
The Red Arrows were originally known as the Red Pelicans and duck-billed platypuses do not have stomachs,
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 11/12/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
