Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 15th January 2026
- Orion Farming Group
- 6 days ago
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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A mixed week as soya tried to push higher ahead of Monday’s USDA WASDE report, with some expectation of a mildly bullish report..
The report was bearish which took the market by surprise.
There was some rumours of Chinese interest in US beans for Mar/Apr at the ned of last week, despite Brazilian beans being $20 cheaper than the US – this is expected to be the tail end of interest as China looks to move across to Brazil.
Brazilian harvest has begun in Mato Grasso, but it’s very early days!
The USDA report set Brazilian production at 178 MMT, up 3MMT.
Combined with the increase in US carryout, global stock increased by 2MMT.
South American weather looks good with no concerns at present.
There is talk of tighter stock over the coming months as shippers look to reduce their exposure, (they will lose a chunk of money carrying stock from Mar/Apr into May/Jun due to old crop/new crop pricing), so premiums could increase nearby, even if overall pricing reduces.
Rapemeal prices had a higher week, as nearby supplies look to tighten up over the coming months, as European crush plants may have to shutdown for decontamination due to a salmonella issue as well as logistical issues.
Additionally, Canadian prime minister Carney had talks with China recently, to negotiate tariffs on canola, (currently China have a 75.8% tariff on seed and 100% on meal and oil as a result of a trade spat).
European and UK seed and meal prices have come under pressure from imported canola and a change in trade flows could lessen this price pressure.
Currently rapemeal sits at 61% for the winter vs soya at Erith and 60% for the summer, Liverpool sits more at 74% for the winter vs soya and 70% for the summer.
Expectation is growing that availability will become a challenge in late winter/spring, similar to last year.
Summer levels have the potential to come lower, if the expected big crops from South America are seen.
Minimal movement on prices as US product continues to flow into domestic markets, as wet product rather than being dried and exported.
With no expectation of any UK produced product coming onto the market for the foreseeable future, imported remains the only option.
Prices look toppy against other options, but with supply looking unlikely to increase anytime soon, it’s hard to see a large downside.
An unchanged market with supply very static and additional material is looking unlikely to come to the market, though demand is lacklustre.
As to next winter, expectation is for a smaller UK acreage, which means lower prices compared to this winter are unlikely to be seen.
Globally, a steady week again, with minimal movement on futures prices in the UK.
There is some concern around low temperatures in the Black Sea and also mild weather in the US, (which would mean a lack of snow cover should they get a cold snap).
There are still big crops and big stocks – global carryout stocks now projected at 278.3MMT, an increase of 3.4MMT due to increased production in Russia and Argentina.
US winter wheat acreage was higher than expected, but this remain historically very low.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
The inky cap mushroom is edible, but poisonous if mixed with alcohol and the fingernails of the middle fingers grow faster than the others.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 15.01.26 Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
