Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 15th May 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- May 15, 2025
- 3 min read
Updated: Jun 3, 2025
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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The market was wary ahead of the US-China meeting on Saturday and Chicago futures did move higher on Monday as cuts were seen on Chinese and US goods, which could re-start Chinese buying of US soybeans again and provide some more demand to their market.
This would mean they would buy less from South America, so no overall change to the global S&D.
As with maize, US soybean planting is racing ahead, now 48% complete vs 37% on the 5 year average.
Crop emergence is also ahead of the 5 year average.
The USDA report on Tuesday night cut US ending stocks more than expected by the trade for the 2024/25 season to 350 million bushels from 375 million bushels, though global ending stocks were slightly increased.
For the 2025/26 season, US ending stocks were reduced from 2024/25 due to expected lower planted acres.
Global ending stocks are projected to increase for 2025/26 to 124.3 million tonnes, on the back of increased South American production.
Prices eased back a little further, though they seem to have slowed as Canadian stocks were down much more than expected due to strong domestic and export demand.
This has put a base into the Canadian market, which was the main downward pressure on UK summer rapemeal prices.
Next winter remains the same situation with a strong premium, whilst Canadian seed doesn’t work financially, but it has yet to find a market for Nov/Apr, so the premium could reduce as winter approaches.
Though this could be thwarted by potential Vivergo/Ensus closures and more demand moving across to rapemeal from distillers.
Supply is continuing to ease up a little but prices are holding steady nearby and still seeing minimal reductions on forward prices.
Prices are expected to improve through the summer, as long as shipments continue and the Argentinian crop progresses well.
Minimal change on prices – though the UK distillers market is going to be in for a turbulent time, as the UK/US trade deal announced last week removed tariffs for US ethanol imports.
On the whole, the US can produce cheaper ethanol than here in the UK and could spell closures for the Vivergo and Ensus bioethanol plants and so remove home produced wheat and maize products from the market.
No change on the market with minimal availability of imported sugarbeet and sitting at a large premium to soya hulls.
No likelihood of any further home produced offers for the summer and there will need to be continued rains over the summer to keep the crops growing well.
Overall grain futures prices fell back, though physical prices in the UK remained at similar levels, continuing the disparity between the two markets.
Sellers remain reluctant to part with their grain at these lower prices.
Overall crops are looking good across the US, UK and Europe – though dryness in the UK has been causing some concern.
Rain has been seen in the south and west of late, but more is need further east and north to secure crops.
The potential impact of the UK/US trade deal on Vivergo in particular could see closure of the plant and so a large amount of wheat with no home.
Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report set out the first estimates of the 2025/26 season increases to US production and stocks, as well as slight increases to global stocks at 256.7MMT from the 2024/25 season ending stocks.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
In 2014, not a single 07.29am Brighton – London train reached its destination on time and 80% of a cricket is edible, compared to 40% of a cow.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 14/05/25 (£/t)
'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 14/05/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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