Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 16th October 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Oct 16
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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A mostly quiet week until Friday when China put further restrictions on rare earth minerals and a $56/T tax on US vessels in Chinese ports, sparking Trump to threaten a100% tariff increase on Chinese goods in return.
This pushed the markets down as they feared a cancellation of the trade summit at the end of October, where they’d been hoping for an agreement on soybean trade between the two countries.
The weekend brought some calmer comments from Trump and confirmation that that the meeting was still on, but the market does remain cautious in its optimism now.
China has continued to buy cargoes of Brazilian beans through into December, which means the window of opportunity for the US is getting smaller each week.
Brazilian early harvest begins in January through to March, which would push the US back out of the market again on price.
With the US government still in shutdown there is no official data on harvest progress or yield estimates, but weather is good for harvest progress the expectation is for no delays at present.
With the big crop, storage is the main concern for farmers with a lot putting beans in on-farm storage, but this may prove to become an issue as the corn harvest progresses.
Firmer prices for Nov/Jan as crushers in the UK have sold a good amount and are less keen to compete against soya.
Further forward prices remain at similar levels, to slightly lower, as the market is quieter then.
Next summer imported prices still look uncompetitive against UK crushed material as Canadian canola is not yet featuring in the UK/EU market.
This could provide some pressure if Canada and China continue their spat, as Canada will need to look for alternative homes and potentially discount prices to get sales.
Not much change on the market as nearby availability is almost non-existent and winter availability is from Jan/Feb onwards.
Prices are firmer than previous years, but still look competitive against sugarbeet.
Expectation is for prices to remain strong until next summer.
Unchanged values on both imported wheat and maize distillers.
Nearby prices remain at a premium due to the continued logistical challenges on the Mississippi (low river levels =reduced tonnage loaded on barges).
As the corn harvest progresses in the US, ethanol producers are wrapping up seasonal maintenance, so there was a big increase in production week on week, alongside continued positive margins for producers.
Wheat distillers remain limited in supply across Europe, so prices are maintaining strong premiums over maize and rapemeal, both of which offer better value for money.
No change with minimal availability for home produced product and imported not working out much cheaper, (depending on location).
It looks expensive against hulls and there is not expected to be additional supply.
The wheat markets moved lower overall as increased crop estimates from Russia (up 600,000T), Argentina (up 1MMT), and the EU (expecting a 22.8MMT increase for the 25/26 from 24/25 crop) pressurised prices.
Nearby UK prices remain steady with supply keeping in check with demand>
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Wimbledon keeps its tennis balls at a temperature of exactly 20 deg C and the computer system of Britain’s police force is called Home Office Large Major Enquiry System: HOLMES for short.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 08/10/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
