Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 17th July 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Jul 17, 2025
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
There will be no weekly straights update next week.
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Friday’s trade data confirms strong performance, with next season’s carryout exceeding expectations and aligning with broader market sentiment.
Prices remain at 10-year lows amid ample supply, with 70% of the crop rated good to excellent.
In the US, near-term weather is favourable and while August heat is forecast, it’s not currently seen as a market risk.
The primary driver remain uncertainty around EUDR, with no firm date yet.
A potential US/China trade deal could ease premiums.
After several weeks of bearish sentiment, the rapemeal market is showing signs of potential firming.
Supply is expected to tighten due to scheduled maintenance on continental crushers in September and October, whilst ongoing logistical challenges from Erith’s July shutdown continue to impact availability.
A significant carry remains from August into winter, with many buyers still favouring spot purchases amid ongoing market caution.
Canola continues to flow into Europe, maintaining pressure on prices, particularly with Canadian origin still more competitive than European replacement.
However this dynamic could shift if Canada and China reach an agreement that restricts canola exports into Europe.
Shippers have significantly underestimated current demand, with available stock now expected to remain tight until new vessels arrive in September.
While these incoming vessels are anticipated to carry some material for sale, volumes will be limited.
Strong buying interest in Europe is also influencing the market, with buyers there willing to pay a premium.
This is resulting in material being diverted away from the UK, further tightening domestic availability.
Demand for maize distillers remains strong, driving prices upward.
This is particularly evident among compounders, where maize distillers is featuring prominently in formulations.
The strength of demand is being supported by reduced domestic supply from Vivergo and Ensus, increasing reliance on imported product.
While rapeseed meal continues to re-enter the market, it has not dampened the demand for maize distillers.
Wheat distillers remain largely absent from the market, due to limited availability and uncompetitive pricing.
The sugarbeet market continues to tread water as the trade awaits the release of British Sugar’s upcoming winter offer, which is expected to set the tone for forward activity.
In the short term nearby supply remains relatively tight.
On the crop front, domestic yield expectations remain unchanged, with the impact of this year’s weather conditions still clearly evident in field assessments.
Prices remained largely unchanged this week with domestic values showing some early resistance driven by a weakening currency.
In the US crop conditions have improved with spring wheat 4% higher good to excellent.
Harvest in the UK has had it’s earliest start in 19 years.
Yields to date are broadly positive, supported by extended dry spells during the spring.
Nationally, yields are currently tracking 2% above the five-year average.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Humans and elephants are the only animals with chins and beavers have transparent eyelids so they can see underwater with their eyes shut.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/24 to 16/07/25 (£/t)
'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 16/07/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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