Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 19th December 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Dec 19, 2025
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
Please note that the next Weekly Straights Update will be on the 8th January 2026.
Wishing you all a very Happy Christmas.
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Last weeks USDA WASDE kept the US exports and stock the same, surprising the markets somewhat as the markets had expected a revision downwards due to slower Chinese buying.
Global production was amended up a little due to increases in Russia and India and global stocks up to 122.4MMT, resulting in a continued market sell-off.
Due to stocks being tighter in some regions nearby prices stayed a little firmer ahead of late Dec shipments.
Interestingly there is estimated to be about 160,000T due into Rotterdam/Amsterdam in late Dec due to all the EUDR delay-non-delay-delay.
China has bought an estimated 3.5MMT since October, but still falls short of the 12MMT pledged, though the US have said they have until February, which is when Brazilian new crop comes in anyway.
Funds seem to continue to sell off on their long especially with better rains forecast for Argentina and Brazil.
Argentina is now 58% complete on plantings.
Some slightly higher levels could be seen over the festive period, due to protection being built into prices on a quiet market.
The market continued to track soya and moved lower for February onwards, as nearby tightness keeps supported for Dec/Jan
The market looks likely to ease back assuming no drastic upturn in soya prices.
Germany has approved their latest biodiesel mandate which could be seen as bearish for meal prices, as it confirms allowance for rapeseed oil in biofuels, which supports the oil price, explaining why there are some keen sellers for Feb onwards.
Prices remain steady as S&D now seem well matched.
Summer prices could reduce if good crops are seen in South America.
They are still well priced against other fibres, but if they drop too much there will be an influx of demand from other importing countries.
An unchanged market as nearby distillers remain at a premium due to logistical issues remain in the US (cold weather and low river levels).
No further news on Ensus, which makes a deal with the government look increasingly unlikely.
Despite strong production and positive margins, prices continue to firm in the US, in part due to good domestic demand.
No change week on week, with imported limited and at a premium to other fibre options.
Home produced is limited and again at a premium to hulls, but it’s unlikely the tighter supply will change until new crop later next year
Last week’s USDA WASDE last week left US figures unchanged.
Globally, futures markets continue to come under pressure from increasing production estimates – USDA project global wheat production at 837.8MMT.
Argentinian wheat provides competition with the cheapest prices and estimates increased to a record 27.7MMT.
Physical process in the UK market remains more static due to a lack of availability as a reluctance to sell at lower prices.
Currently not much bullish news in wheat/barley.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
The 65 billion neutrinos that pass every second through every square centimetre of your body were created 8.5 minutes ago in the centre of the sun and you can smell a flock of macaroni penguins from six miles away.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 18/12/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
