Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 20th May 2026
- Joe Cobb
- May 21
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Prices were boosted here by several things last week which gave the market a boost as a result of the WASDE report.
South American production was increased, Brazil by 11MMT to 180MMT and Argentina from 48MMT to 48.5MMT.
2025/26 US exports and crush were increased, whilst production decreased slightly.
2026/27 gave some further surprises with US production expected to be higher alongside demand and exports giving an ending stock forecast of 8.43MMT.
Global production is set to increase to 441.54MMT, but increased demand results in very similar ending stocks of 124.78MMT.
The US-China meeting last week gave no initial news of a deal which began a small sell-off Thursday/Friday, before the announcement on Monday of China agreeing to import $17 billion per year of US agricultural goods 2026 – 28.
In addition to the additional beans they committed to buying in October.
This would be a marked increase from previous years and it’s expected that soya will make up a large portion of the trade as it has done previously.
Chicago prices rallied on the back of this news, whilst South American premiums began to drop as that would mean reduced demand for them.
This will firm North American prices for us, but weaken South American/AO prices.
Another bullish note for US prices was Italy buying another 150,000T of US meal, as the EU and the South American continue to try and sort out the finding of unapproved GM varieties in shipments coming to Europe.
US plantings continue to romp ahead at 67% vs 53% on the 5 year average.
Prices have held relatively steady on old crop with good supplies now keeping a lid on increases.
Additionally with the soya rallies over the last week it has put rapemeal into a better position vs soya prices.
Old crop Erith values now sit at 66% of the soya price and Liverpool at 77%.
Some firming of new crop values has been seen driven mainly by the soya market.
New crop Erith values are circa 61% for ASO and 66% for Nov/Apr, Liverpool is around 71% and 75% respectively., these seem reasonable values.
It seems likely for now that rapemeal will track soya and any downside consumers may hope to see would need to come from the soya market.
Prices are holding steady and still offer a good option for fibres for the summer and next winter considering how expensive Sugarbeet is expected to be for the new season and the scarcity of imported.
Prices firmed a little more in part due to the weaker GBP and also support to the maize market.
With crude oil firming again it will do nothing to encourage increasing drying of maize by-products for export, regardless of the carbon credit situation.
There is no further update on Ensus as to whether they will get any further government support to continue running beyond Jun/Jul.
No change – no imported or home produced product offered.
Some talk of values on home produced for next season, but anyone hoping for a deal, expect prices to be higher and availability to be tighter than last winter.
Last week’s USDA WASDE report brought a few surprises and a supportive tone to prices.
US production was reduced for 2025/26 resulting in smaller domestic usage and exports for the US due to higher prices.
Next season 2026/27 set US production at the lowest for 54 years down 25% from 2025/26, resulting in ending stocks being forecast down 18%.
Global production was also forecast down at 819.1MMT vs the previous at 843.8MMT.
So overall a tighter picture to a degree, but the 2026/27 US forecasts were lower than expected which supported prices there and here.
US winter wheat conditions continue to slip lower with 3% very poor – poor.
Some rain forecast this week may help to stabilise crop conditions.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week……The tall chef’s hat or toque blanche traditionally had a hundred pleats to represent the number of ways an egg could be cooked and in 1937, Gillingham FC sold one of their players to Aston Villa for three second-hand turnstiles, two goalkeeper’s sweaters, three cans of weed-killer and an old typewriter.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 20 May.26 Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
