Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 22nd January 2026
- Orion Farming Group
- Jan 22
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Prices were down week on week.
The market was still digesting the USDA numbers and beginning to think there was more stock to come into play.
Private estimates are putting exports lower than the USDA and so a higher US bean carryout.
One private estimate has the Brazilian bean crop at 182.2MMT on the back of higher yields, whilst the USDA is at 178MMT.
The Brazilian harvest continues to get going now at 2% complete.
Lower rainfall in the forecast for Argentina could negatively impact the soybean crop, so it’s worth being mindful of weather issues, as funds can still jump onto news even if it seems outweighed by plentiful supply elsewhere.
South America is still tighter in the old crop positions due to more exports to China over the past year so it’s worth keeping a close eye on spot/Apr as supplies might tighten ahead of new crop shipments in May.
Overall a higher market as news broke of a trade agreement between China and Canada, with Canada to import 49,000 EVs at a reduced tariff and a reduction in tariffs on canola and its by-products.
China has already booked a panamax of Canadian canola for March shipment, so they seem keen to start buying.
Crush margins remain good for rapeseed and favours crushing over soya.
Additionally, there is expected to be a requirement for canola oil into the US to fulfil the US biofuel mandate, which could keep crushing levels higher in Canada, (meaning more meal – though this could still trade to China, as it’s worth more there).
European production for rapeseed is estimated at 20.16MMT vs 16.77MMT for 2024, which has already started reducing Europe’s reliance on imported seed.
The news around Canada and China has pushed rapemeal up vs soya, putting Winter Erith at 65% and summer at 64%. Liverpool levels are higher (which is normal) with winter at 79% and summer at 72%.
Availability for the next few months looks likely to remain tighter, with nearby premiums already reflecting this.
Prices eased back a little, though there still remains some concern for supply over the next few months as new crop shipments creep closer.
Shippers could keep stocks as tight as possible to avoid holding any old crop when new crop shipments arrive, (old stock will be worth less as soon as the new shipments arrive).
Additionally South American stocks are a bit tighter, due to shipments to China over the past year.
Prices have remained rangebound as supply lines remain relatively unchanged.
US ethanol production had another record high month, (4th in a row), though more production of distillers grains go as wet product domestically, rather than being dried and exported.
In the background Brazil have been ramping up DDGs production, with the majority being sold domestically, but as the volumes grow the government is looking for export markets, with China due to take their first shipments this year.
This may not put prices under huge pressure given the downturn in US export availability, but it could keep a lid on prices.
An unchanged market with supply very static and additional material is looking unlikely to come to the market, though demand is sluggish, with most customers having already swapped to other alternatives.
As to next winter, expectation is for a smaller UK acreage, which means lower prices compared to this winter are unlikely to be seen.
Minimal movement in the markets for grain as the global supply continues to remain large with minimal concerns on crops.
Drier weather in the US and the hard frosts in the Ukraine are providing little focus, but against the global picture shouldn’t impact on prices too much, given good conditions in other regions like the EU.
Barley remains tricky to source with price variance widening, depending on how soon it’s required and how keen the seller is, (generally, not very!).
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….The keys used to open the Bank of England’s gold vault are three feet long and the world’s deepest gold mine is nearly three miles deep and could hold ten Empire State Buildings stacked on top of one another.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 22.01.26 Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
