Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 29th January 2026
- Orion Farming Group
- Jan 29
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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A fast start to the Brazilian harvest and dryness in Argentina which could impact production if it continues into next month, which is more critical for pod filling.
Wetter weather is forecast for Brazil which could affect harvest progress, but currently isn’t impacting on progress.
Sales of US beans had been strong, but the expectation now is that China will source Brazilian beans.
Farmer selling in South America is in line with the 5-year average and improving, with additional help from good currency rates.
Nearby prices have continued to firm as availability remains limited.
Old crop prices keep pushing higher as supply into Europe struggled with low river levels resulting in lower crush levels and European meal being worth more than in the UK, (gives shippers more incentive to ship to Europe rather than keep the product in the UK).
Additionally, the market was being pushed artificially higher as European traders struggled to cover their positions, with sellers unwilling to offer at the time..
There has now been a correction to this, but it’s a reminder that the market is still very technical.
Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian imports if they sign a free-trade deal, (the EV/canola deal with China). Yet to be seen if that influences Canada.
Canadian canola though doesn’t currently price into Europe.
Against soya, rapemeal now sits at 65% of soya price for the summer in the south and 74% of soya in the north.
We have stayed at these levels before against soya, so pressure on rapemeal due to lower soya prices is not guaranteed, but with lower milk prices and generally lower demand in the summer, it raises the question as to whether it will need to come lower to tempt buyers.
As farmer selling in South America has improved from previous weeks, crush plants have been able to secure further beans in order to keep supplies rolling.
Argentina seems to be well sold until April, so downside before then seems unlikely, but summer prices could see further pressure due to good supplies.
With the cold spell in the US over the weekend maize distillers values firmed further.
This was down to logistical issues with the Mississippi freezing over in some parts, as well as ethanol plants running at reduced levels due to the increased gas prices.
There was brief talk of pushing for E15 (a higher inclusion of ethanol in fuel in the US), which would be supportive for maize prices but would pressure distillers prices, but this appears to have been shelved.
Shippers are now looking at whether logistics will ease up enough for plants to get back to running full steam, before spring maintenance arrives.
Not much change from previous weeks, with minimal supply in the UK for both imported and home produced.
This looks unlikely to alter until new crop and given crops are expected to be smaller this summer, price reductions may be hard to come by.
Grain prices were supported into the end of last week due to weather premium being built into US prices, due to the winter storm passing through over the weekend, increasing the risk of winterkill in crops.
Most of the premium was subsequentially removed as the storm also brought a decent amount of snow cover in most places, so the chance of it impacting yields should have been much reduced.
Strong competition for exports from the Black Sea region and Argentina also kept prices capped.
A mostly neutral-bearish tone is likely to be seen now given the plentiful supplies.
Physical prices seem more static, as sellers remain reluctant to part with grain at these prices unless they have to.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….The world’s oldest footprints outside Africa were found on a beach in Norfolk and when the dinosaurs were alive, there were active volcanoes on the moon.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 22.01.26 Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
