Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 2nd October 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Oct 2, 2025
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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A quiet week as futures trade sideways on minimal news.
The US harvest begins to ramp up (19% complete vs 20% on average), while early yield reports seem mixed for now.
Weather in the US looks good for harvest progress over the next week or two.
Argentina reinstated their export taxes (having removed them on the 22nd September), having sold a considerable tonnage of product in the break.
This included selling November soybeans to China – which further reduces the chance for US demand, as China are apparently 70% covered now for November.
Brazilian planting is also beginning, at 5.97% - ahead of last year and at the top end of the 5 year average.
Drier weather is expected over the next week in Brazil, so there is an element of caution about getting carried away with entirely bearish tone, as favourable weather is still needed over the next few months to secure a good crop.
Nearby prices have been firming as crushers are increasingly well sold.
It seems likely heading toward December (and winter demand) that this could remain the case, so staying out of the spot market is advisable.
Prices still offer good value for forward positions – with Erith Rapemeal at 58% of Hipro soya for the winter period and Liverpool at 73%.
For next summer, Erith sits a 63% of the soya price and Liverpool at 72%.
It still feels there could be a better day for next summer pricing (subject to any soya production issues!) and Aug/Oct 26 remains at a minimal to nil discount.
Additionally imported Rapemeal is not being offered particularly competitively for the summer ( and not at all for Aug/Oct 26) – if there is no progress between China and Canada, there is a chance competitive canola coming across to the UK/Europe again for next summer.
Supply remains tight with prices continuing to reflect this.
Winter availability continues to tighten and it seems sensible to put cover on for the winter to secure supply and avoid paying nearby premiums.
Next summer pricing is less attractive for now.
Another sideways week for maize and wheat distillers, though a slight recovery was seen in Mississippi river levels, but barges still have reduced drafts, (but better than previous weeks) – freight remains firm though whilst the cargoes are unable to load fully.
Still no news about the future of Ensus, with discussions ongoing.
Sugarbeet markets remain firm, with minimal home produced tonnage available and commanding a hefty premium over other fibre products.
Imported product is available for the winter, but not too much discounted from UK product, depending on location.
Supply is expected to stay tight into next year.
Another quiet week, with futures seemingly stuck in a range for the time being.
The market continues to contend with strong supply and increased expectation for larger crops for next year (eg. Europe).
US winter wheat plantings are at 34% complete, vs 36% on the 5 year average.
As mentioned before, there is still disparity between physical values and future values, with sellers remaining reluctant to lock into these new low prices.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
25 million bibles were printed in 2011, compared to 208 million IKEA catalogues and some parts of Tasmania are so fertile that the topsoil is 70 feet deep.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 02/10/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
