Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 30th October 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Oct 30
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Chicago soymeal futures continued to climb upwards now reaching 10 days in a row of higher closes, driven by continued optimism that Trump and Xi will agree a trade deal between the two countries that could involve soyabeans.
A framework for the presidents to discuss and potentially approve was drafted over the weekend between the countries respective representatives, though the content remains unknown.
The outcome of this meeting will likely provide further direction for the soya market, although there is a limited window for the US to supply China with beans before the early Brazilian new crop in January.
A trade deal could provide an additional boost to the market, but playing devil’s advocate a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” situation could be seen and a potential for a dip post-deal announcement, as markets have already moved higher in anticipation of this.
A collapse in negotiations at this point would send markets tumbling, given how well priced the news is.
Argentinian soya premiums have also firmed in the past week, due to lack of farmer selling, as they are angling for another export cut.
The US harvest is nearing completion and is thought to be good..
Brazilian planting has eased off a little but still well in line with the 5 year average at 60% complete. Argentina should be in a good position to start next month.
For the UK/EU market, focus has also been on the EUDR news last week, (no longer proposing a 12 month delay), with shippers scrambling to get answers from the EU on details of the regulations and working out shipping plans for early 2026.
This still needs voting on and it has brought uncertainty around pricing for 2026 and also what is required for UK farmers.
After news broke on the 21st that EUDR wasn’t going to be postponed after all, rapemeal stormed higher on the 23rd, as crushers anticipated more demand moving across from soya and realigned prices accordingly.
This put them up £15 - £19?T initially, but actually vs soya still looked reasonable.
Prices have remained high due to lack of trade now on the market.
European consumers did look to put some additional cover on initially for next year, but small volumes compared to the overall demand and buying has now dropped right back.
Crush margins are still good overall.
It seems sensible to put winter cover on if prices back down a little.
Summer cover will depend on what soya does over the next week, with negotiations between Trump and Xi on Thursday/Friday.
A firmer market as supply remains on the tight side, especially nearby.
With a price disparity between hulls and sugarbeet, there is not expected to be lower levels this winter.
Mississippi river levels remain low and continue to prove tricky with logistics – keeping freight firm as barges are unable to load to full capacity.
Demand in the US also remains good.
Ethanol margins have also remained good in the US – with strong demand for ethanol continuing, this should keep distillers flowing, (subject to logistical issues!).
Imported maize and wheat distillers prices are holding steady, though wheat distillers supply could be tighter over the winter, with Vivergo missing from the market.
Ensus continue to produce to supply contracted material, but no further offers due to the uncertainty of the plant’s future.
Unchanged for another week – imported sugarbeet supply is tight and home produced supply even tighter.
London wheat futures sank lower over the week, before giving back all of those losses on Monday and pushing higher overall.
Though physical prices didn’t follow the market lower, as sellers are reluctant to part with grain at these cheap prices, the boost on Tuesday may encourage some potential selling.
Globally, wheat prices have been pressured by rising crop estimates – Russia now up to 88MMT, Australia estimated privately at 36.5MMT.
The IGC increased global production for wheat to 827MMT (up from 819MMT last month), with an increase in carryover stocks of 5MMT.
US prices did manage to find some support on Monday with trade agreements (though notable they are non-binding) being signed with Malasia, Vietnam , Thailand and Cambodia – all major buyers of US Wheat.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
There are over 125 species of coffee plant but we only make coffee from six of them and more than half the world’s mountains have not yet been climbed.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 29/10/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
