Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 31st July 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Jul 31, 2025
- 4 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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The prices eased back despite the trade deals the US announced, which should have been supportive for prices.
The US soybean conditions now at 70% good -excellent, up from last week, with good weather forecast for the next couple of weeks, maintaining these good ratings.
The strength of the US dollar has limited the amount of price easing here in the UK.
Ongoing trade talks between the US and China could provide support to Chicago futures, if an agreement is reached that would bring Chinese buyers back to the US market, currently they’re only buyers from South America.
If they do return to the US market, South American prices should ease as the trade flow shifts, but whether it will completely counter the CBOT increases is not guaranteed, so prices could increase here.
Argentina announced cut to export taxes on agricultural products from 33% to 26% on beans and from 31% to 24.5% on soy by-products.
Before the tax hike at the end of June, there was a big push by Argentinian farmers to sell crops and get in ahead of the increase and subsequently minimal selling since.
This return to lower tax levels should bring some farmers back to the market, especially as they’re not opting to use their beans as a hedge against inflation.
Nearby prices remained supported as crushers are not spot sellers and so imported is the only option.
Erith was slow to re-start from their planned maintenance and so there were some cancellations of mid-week collections.
They are no longer sellers of Aug/Oct as they called force majeure on meal contracts for that period following a vessel colliding with their jetty.
Whilst they don’t anticipate any issues supplying product, this news has meant prices have kept firmer for that period from other suppliers.
UK harvest is 54% complete with yields and quality better than expected.
Next summer is still trading with large premiums and the new crop for 2026 is at a minimal discount due to lack of trade.
The market looks unlikely to ease significantly with nearby tightness continuing and Argentina seeing continued higher demand from more buyers.
Their crush is up 8.4% but hull exports are up 9.6%.
Still no news on the future of Vivergo and Ensus, though Vivergo is set to have to mothball the plant in the coming weeks as they run out of wheat and are unwilling to keep running without government support.
A decision from the government is rumoured to be due mid-August.
US production of maize distillers remains good and looks likely to continue given the massive increase in ethanol mandates, (and improved rewards for using domestic goods to produce it) though lower levels are still being seen due to logistic tightness in the US and poorer currency.
Home produced prices for the winter are expected shortly, but prices are expected to be increased from last winter due to an expected smaller drop, in part because of a smaller acreage, but also the dry start to the spring/summer.
No imported levels are offered as yet.
Harvest progress continues to be mixed across the northern hemisphere, with France way ahead of previous years at 86% complete, but the Black Sea regions lagging behind last year’s pace.
The UK remains more stop/start now with winter wheat at 11% complete although initial yields are poor but quality is good
UK winter barley is 92% complete but with variable yields, but when averaged is in line with the 5 year average.
US wheat is at 80% complete.
The US announced various trade deals over the last week with several countries including the EU.
This tried to add some strength to the US grain markets last week, but the upward movement failed to gain any traction and in the end levels remained fairly stable.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
The Companies Act (2006) is the longest act in history; it is so complex that most British companies unwittingly break the law six time a day and Venus rotates so slowly on its axis that its day is longer than its year.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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