Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 5th February 2026
- Orion Farming Group
- Feb 5
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Brazilian harvest pressure is now beginning to kick in with progress at 10%.
Conversely, Argentina is still struggling with dry conditions, as showers remain scattered and insufficient.
More rain is needed entering the pod-filling period, where it’s critical to realise yield potential.
The crop conditions have dropped back again to 47% good/excellent, (down 6% week on week) and production estimates have been knocked back to 48MMT.
The US and India signed a trade deal at the end of last week, which provided a little support for CBOT beans.
This would encourage more crushing as India is a major importer of soya oil, (meaning more meal produced).
Nearby prices remain at a premium as shippers continue to try and reduce carry over from April to May and more demand may be seen for spot due to the tightness/higher prices in the rapemeal market.
A volatile week as the Erith plant was shutdown last Wednesday by H&S.
It is unknown at this stage when they will be able to reopen, as it will depend how quickly the can fulfil HSE’s requirements.
As a result there has been a spike in demand for rapemeal form other ports/sources, as everyone (including ADM) look to get product to keep mills and farms supplied.
Imported prices have jumped between £15-£25/T already and this is £35-£45/T over where Erith had been priced at prior to this issue.
The European market was already tight with logistic issues in getting seed into plants on the continent (weather) and this closure has worsened the situation.
Summer values are raised due to lack of selling by Erith whilst their priorities are elsewhere, so the only firm offers are Liverpool (which trades at a premium to Erith) and imported, which has been at a premium since the Canada/China deal.
On the summer it seems the wrong time to try and be a buyer in the market as the trade is more focussed on securing supply nearby.
The hulls market seems well supplied at the moment, with the nearby premium being slowly eroded with lower bean markets.
There is still a potential for tightness toward the end of winter and in April, as shippers look to keep stocks down whilst they await new crop shipments in May
Nearby availability has tightened further, as logistical issues in the US continue due to low river levels and ice.
This is also pushing freight rates up, seeing further increase on summer levels.
There is also increased demand for other mid-proteins as a result of the Erith shutdown.
If logistics ease up with warmer weather in the US and Erith reopen, summer levels could ease off again, but by how much may be limited by reduced quantities coming out of ethanol plants as dried distillers, (more is now being sold as a wet product domestically).
No change week on week, demand remains sluggish due to high prices, but supply also remains tight and looks likely to continue for the foreseeable.
UK acreage is expected to be reduced from last year, so lower autumn new crop prices are unlikely.
The extreme cold in the US and Ukraine provided some bullish input through part of last week alongside the weaker USD.
UK futures were pushed slightly higher as a result but limited by the strength in GBP.
Global competition remains strong.
Prices in the UK remain fairly steady.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….40 million tons of dust is blown from the Sahara to the Amazon every year and only a fifth of the Sahara desert is sand.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 04.02.26 Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
