Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 6 November 2025
- Ann Lewis
- Nov 6, 2025
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Another week of higher prices as Trump and Xi agreed a trade deal, (yet to be signed).
This continued upward movement marked 14 days of higher daily moves on Chicago (CBOT) for soy meal – highly unusual as nothing has fundamentally change globally with S&D.
The agreement is for China to buy 12MMT of US bean by January and 25MMT each year for the next 3 years.
There is a little scepticism around the 12MMT figure as to whether this includes purchases already made (5.9MMT), if China follow through or whether the US can logistically supply that much in that timeframe.
For the next 3 years 25MMT is about the normal.
As a result of the CBOT rally, US meal looks uncompetitive against other origins, (eg. Brazil is about $40/T cheaper).
The soya market is very overbought and overdue a correction back down.
It will be interesting to see how all this news is reflected in the next USDA WASDE report on the 14th, (which they are planning to publish despite the government shutdown).
Brazilian planting is at 76% for Matto Grosso which is now a little behind the 5year average due to dry weather.
No further news around EUDR. There has been lobbying from some shippers and some eastern bloc countries to alter the regulation or delay, due to lack of readiness and clarity from the US on certain topics, when the deadline is less than 2 months away.
Although there is a 6 month grace period on checks (and fines) the big trading companies don’t want to be seen to be breaking the law, so the grace period is a little irrelevant to them.
Prices continued to firm due to the higher soya market and also reduced crush margins for rapeseed plants.
There is still limited liquidity on the European market, especially nearby, so prices are staying firm.
Unless changes on EUDR are seen that would push more demand back onto soya, it’s unlikely price ratios will alter for now.
Hopes for lower prices again is pinned mainly on soya futures being drastically overbought and the potential for a correction lower there.
UK crushers are well sold for the winter and so imported rapemeal values are based off European prices, which is at a higher level due to increased EU demand.
Lower levels for winter seem less likely given the OSR crush margins and the situation with soya in Europe.
Prices moved higher as demand remains strong both in the UK and globally.
Supply is expected to stay tight into the new year.
No update on Ensus as they are only supplying existing contracts.
Imported maize distillers prices climbed higher as US export prices were up slightly week on week, with river levels on the Mississippi recovering slightly.
Imported wheat distillers moved lower but with limited supply nearby, it still seems sensible to stay out of the nearby months.
They still look expensive against other mid-protein options.
Availability remains tight on both home produced and imported sugarbeet, with imported prices creeping higher as a result of S&D changes.
London futures were supported by a weaker GBP and some support to US wheat prices, which filtered into other wheat markets.
The US was supported by continued strong demand and positive news from the US/China trade talks which don’t directly related to wheat purchased, but there was spill over strength from soya as well.
China is also rumoured to have been looking to purchase some wheat from the US, which has given that market a further boost.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Astronaut John Young smuggled a corned-beef sandwich into space and NASA estimates that the near-Earth asteroid, Eros, contains 20 billion tons of gold.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 6/11/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
