Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 7th August 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Aug 7, 2025
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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The last couple of days saw a bounce on beans and meal.
Meal was supported by weaker soy oil futures due to the announced increase in oil production by OPEC, putting pressure on crude and veg oil prices.
This means that with soy oil worth less, meal has to move higher to help maintain crush margins.
Soybean futures reached a support point at 985 cents for Nov futures.
A slight reduction of 1% to 69% good to excellent in US soybean conditions and the weather is looking good for the next couple of weeks.
August will be key for pod filling, with expectations already for a big crop and good yields – the weather needs to keep playing ball for this to be realised.
Erith is now back on line, but with having to call force majeure on Aug/Oct contracts, the market remains firmer for spot to October.
Erith are not sellers and Liverpool is also nearing sold out – so the main option is imported, of which there is a good amount, but it comes at a premium.
November onwards is moving down, with premiums still looking strong on Feb onwards, though a little lower than previous weeks.
The European Commission cut the 2025 EU rapeseed harvest to 18.5MMT, ( a cut of 385,000T), but this remains above the 5 year average, but falls short of the 25MMT needed for processing.
The Canadian canola crop is improving due to rains in late July and is generally viewed as in better condition than last year.
Expectation is for is for a large amount to be crushed by Canada and the meal to be exported, with the EU a likely option if Canada is unable to find a way back into the Chinese market.
Nearby remains very tight with minimal offering until September.
The global demand is showing no signs of let up, so it looks increasingly unlikely that there will be a significant drop in prices for the winter.
There is still some hope though, due to the fact that shippers are not really focussed currently on winter, but preoccupied with spot logistics.
A static market for distillers, with no fresh news for the UK plants.
Vivergo will have run out of wheat by now and ceased production and the decision is due mid-August.
Ensus continues to run but unsurprisingly are not offering any additional contracts.
The US continues to produce a good amount of maize distillers on the back of strong ethanol demand.
River freight rates in the US remain firm though, keeping product moving domestically rather than flooding the export market, hence why prices haven’t moved much.
No winter offers from Trident yet and no imported offer either.
Regardless, expectation is for an increase on last winter’s prices, which puts it even less competitive against hulls.
Prices slid back a few pounds over the past week, as global supply weighed back on the market.
UK harvest continues to be stop-start, with mainly spring crops left to be cut.
The US have cut 86% of their winter wheat, which is a little behind the 5 year average, but not raising any concerns.
They are also 5% complete on their spring wheat harvest.
France are 89% complete on their soft wheat harvest, whilst Germany and Poland still battle against rain, slowing progress and raising quality concerns.
In Argentina they have had a cracking start to the wheat planting, with nearly all sown areas in optimal conditions.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Starfish can regrow a whole new body from a single arm and in 1954, the Soviet Union applied to join NATO.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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