Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 06/11/25

There has been a continued small rise in the average Orion prices over the last seven days.

Deliveries: Between 2 – 7 working days, dependant on the Supplier and the area they cover , some suppliers are starting to get busier with the colder weather & their winter domestic trade starting up.

The graph detailing average prices is temporarily unavailable however we are looking to re-design this so it will appear again soon!

Kerosene – Just a reminder as we are entering the Autumn/Winter period, please take a check on your Kero requirements & place any orders.

For electricity enquiries please contact Stuart in the office or email – stuart@ofg.org.uk for any other enquiries please visit our CONTACT page

Your Farm Fuel Q&A: 6 November 2025

A factual update on the key questions impacting your fuel costs.

Q: How has the price of Brent Crude oil changed since the previous update?

A: The price of the global oil benchmark, ICE Brent Crude, is showing very stable but firm pricing this week, trading in the range of $63.54 to $63.95 per barrel (based on available data for Nov 6, 2025). This is down slightly from the $64.22 reported at the end of October, reflecting persistent pressure from oversupply fears. However, prices are currently resisting a sharper decline, recovering from intraday losses due to a slight risk-on sentiment in the wider market.

Q: What was the main outcome of the recent OPEC+ meeting and what does it mean for supply?

A: The main decision from the recent OPEC+ meeting (held around Nov 2) was a commitment to a pause in planned production increases for the first quarter of 2026 (Jan, Feb, Mar).Near-Term (December): The group is expected to proceed with a modest, cautious hike of around 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December, continuing the gradual unwinding of previous cuts.

Significance for Farmers: The pause for Q1 2026 signals OPEC+'s concern about the global supply glut and weak demand forecasts for the start of next year. They are acting to prevent prices from collapsing due to this surplus. This decision removes immediate downward pressure but highlights that the fundamental market condition is one of oversupply.

Q: Is the UK currency (Sterling) helping or hindering my fuel costs right now?

A: Sterling's weakness against the US Dollar is currently working against UK farmers and fuel buyers. The Problem: Crude oil is priced in US Dollars globally. A weaker Sterling means that it costs more Pounds to buy the same amount of Dollar-priced oil.

Context: The Bank of England's recent decision to hold Bank Rate at 4% amidst a desire to reduce inflation suggests a more balanced risk outlook, but currency markets often react to shifts in interest rate expectations. A falling Pound counteracts the benefit of any drops in the headline Brent Crude price, keeping your local Red Diesel costs elevated.

Q: What is the primary market factor to watch for the remainder of the year that could shift Red Diesel prices?

A: The primary factor to watch is the Middle Distillate (Diesel) Market vs. Crude.

The Split: As noted last week, while the cost of crude oil is weak (due to oversupply), the Refining Margin (or 'crack spread') for refined products like diesel remains high. Disruptions to Russian refining and the high demand for winter heating oil and jet fuel are keeping distillate stocks tight.

Farmer Impact: If these geopolitical factors ease, or if refining capacity comes back fully online, the refining margin will shrink, and the price of Red Diesel should fall more in line with the low underlying crude oil price. Until then, the high premium on refined diesel is the main element preventing a significant drop in your current farm fuel prices.

Fuel price outlook section provided by Investing.com and Gemini.

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Please note that any opinions expressed in this update are sources from market information / analysis and do not represent views of Orion Farming Group. Orion Farming Group accepts no responsibility for any Member decisions made on the basis of information provided in the weekly fuel update.

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