Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 08/10/25

Average Orion prices show a slight movement down overall on the week.

Deliveries remain between 2 – 5 working days, dependant on the Supplier and the area they cover.

The graph detailing average prices is temporarily unavailable however we are looking to re-design this so it will appear again soon!

As we are entering in to the Autumn/Winter period it may be a good time to check on any Kerosene requirements.

For electricity enquiries please contact Stuart in the office or email – stuart@ofg.org.uk for any other enquiries please visit our CONTACT page

Your Farm Fuel Q&A: 8 October 2025

A factual update on the key questions impacting your fuel costs.

Q1: What’s the latest on crude price?

Brent crude is trading in the mid-$60s — around $65.9 per barrel after OPEC+ announced a limited production increase for November.

The modest OPEC+ increase (≈137,000 barrels per day) was smaller than many expected, which gave the market a slight bullish bump.

That said, global demand remains uneven and oversupply risks linger, which may cap sustained upward moves.

Q2: What is the current outlook for my red diesel and kerosene costs?

Red diesel / gasoil: Margins from refining and distribution are likely to stay firm. Even if crude softens, your delivered cost may not fall by the same margin. Refinery margins in Q3 2025 hit some of their highest levels of the year.

Kerosene (heating oil): Seasonal heating demand heading into winter will support prices. Local supply/delivery constraints may push any weakness in crude to have only limited effect on your end cost.

Net effect: Expect a relatively flat to gently upward cost trend over the next several weeks — not dramatic spikes (for now), but with little room for big declines.

Q3: What should I be watching for next?

Keep your eyes on:

1.OPEC+ policy announcements

• If they revert to larger production hikes, that may push crude downward (which may help you).

• But any further restraint or surprise cuts would tighten markets.

2. Refinery outages or maintenance in Europe / UK

   • Diesel/kerosene bottlenecks tend to come from disruption or scheduled maintenance, not just crude price shifts.

3. Currency & import logistics

• A weaker pound against the dollar could raise your UK delivered costs even if crude stays constant.

• Delivery and haulage costs can amplify upstream price moves locally.

Summary

Red diesel and kerosene costs are unlikely to drop much from here — but they also look relatively stable in the short term. The biggest risks to the upside will come from refining/supply disruptions, harsh winter demand, or surprise OPEC+ action.

Fuel price outlook section provided by Investing.com and Gemini.

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Please note that any opinions expressed in this update are sources from market information / analysis and do not represent views of Orion Farming Group. Orion Farming Group accepts no responsibility for any Member decisions made on the basis of information provided in the weekly fuel update.

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