Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 23/04/25 - Farm prices unchanged and futures markets up on last week
- Orion Farming Group
- Apr 23
- 2 min read
Prices remain steady over the last week. Suppliers continue to be on a 3 to 7 working day delivery window.
A new supplier, FastExocet, has joined the Group. FastExocet are suppliers of fuel additives, and you can find out more HERE; orders can be placed directly with FastExocet.
Fuel price outlook
Brent crude recovered from early April lows below $60, stabilizing between $64-$68 per barrel, though facing resistance near $68-$70. Dominant negative pressure remains from US-led trade tensions fueling recession fears and significant demand forecast cuts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC , although recent de-escalation rhetoric offers tentative hope. OPEC+'s accelerated May supply increase (+411k bpd) is largely offset by submitted compensation cuts (~378k bpd for May), muting the net supply impact. Tightening Iran sanctions provide bullish support. The upcoming EIA inventory report (Apr 23) is a key catalyst after conflicting American Petroleum Institute (API) data. The forecast anticipates range-bound trading ($65-$70), with a neutral to slightly bullish bias possible next week.
The feed through to farm gate prices in the UK is further complicated by the recent dollar devaluations with the likely impact that it will slightly amplify an USD barrel price increases when converted to GBP.
Cut through to understand the key drivers by listening to the latest concise audio summary from 23rd April in this 4 minute blog (Source: Gemini from Demand Economics - see below for more detail.)
Relationship between Brent Futures and UK Farm Red Diesel prices
We have looked at the extent to which UK Farm Red Diesel prices are determined by Brent Crude Futures, alongside any other key variables such as the GBP/USD exchange rate. Using econometric regression analysis and data from 115 market data websites from 2015 to 2025, we observe statistically significant relationships between UK Farm Red Diesel prices and Brent Crude Spot Price, together with the Exchange Rate, Red Diesel Duty and to a lesser degree UK inflation: taken together these factors account for 94.5% of the monthly variation in UK Farm Red Diesel prices; hence supporting the notion that Brent Crude is a key driver of Red Diesel prices. Please contact Demand Economics for the full report.
Please note that any opinions expressed in this update are sources from market information / analysis and do not represent views of Orion Farming Group. Orion Farming Group accepts no responsibility for any Member decisions made on the basis of information provided in the weekly fuel update.
Applications and Data Analytics for Orion developed by Demand Economics Ltd. Here's a bit more information about Google Gemini Deep Research for this blog. This AI tool will research over 70 websites and produce a detailed report from which this summary and the blog are created, providing you with the most accurate and up to date information.
