Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 25/06/25
- Orion Farming Group
- Jun 25
- 2 min read
After the sharp price rises of last week, this week the prices are having a steady decline taking them back to a similar level before the recent Middle East issues - as you will see on the average pricing graph below. Deliveries between 2 – 5 working days, dependant on the Supplier & area they cover.
Fuel price outlook: A Rapid Reversal
The situation in the oil markets has changed dramatically since last week. The intense pressure we saw on fuel prices has eased significantly, as the fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East have subsided for now.
Where We Are Now
After spiking to nearly $80 a barrel at the start of the week, Brent Crude prices have tumbled. As of today, the price is trading around $68-$69 per barrel.
This sharp drop is almost entirely due to the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The "geopolitical risk premium" – essentially a fear tax that was built into the price – has evaporated as the immediate threat of a major supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz has been taken off the table.
The Key Short-Term Drivers
Two opposing forces are now pulling at the market:
Pushing Prices Down: The ceasefire is the dominant factor. As long as it holds, it keeps a lid on prices. Furthermore, the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations is continuing to gradually increase supply, which also helps to soften the market.
Providing a Floor for Prices: On the other hand, the latest data on oil reserves in the United States showed a much larger-than-expected drop in inventories. This indicates that global demand is still robust and is using up stored oil faster than anticipated, which prevents the price from completely collapsing.
What to Expect Over the Next Week
The market is now trying to establish a new, lower trading range. The extreme volatility of last week is gone, but the situation remains fragile.
For the week ahead, expect prices to remain highly sensitive to any news related to the Middle East ceasefire. Any violation could cause an immediate spike, but the current momentum is sideways to downwards. The fundamental picture of supply and demand suggests a price floor not far below current levels.
The most likely scenario for the coming week is for Brent Crude to trade in a range of $66 to $71 a barrel. The immediate upward pressure on your fuel costs has been relieved, but the market is far from stable, and any renewed geopolitical tension will be felt at the pump almost instantly.
Fuel price outlook section provided by Investing.com and Demand Economics.
Please note that any opinions expressed in this update are sources from market information / analysis and do not represent views of Orion Farming Group. Orion Farming Group accepts no responsibility for any Member decisions made on the basis of information provided in the weekly fuel update.
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