Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 29/10/25
- Orion Farming Group
- Oct 29
- 3 min read
There was a steady rise in the average Orion prices over the last seven days.
Deliveries: Between 2 – 7 working days, dependant on the Supplier and the area they cover , some suppliers are starting to get busier with the colder weather & their winter domestic trade starting up.
The graph detailing average prices is temporarily unavailable however we are looking to re-design this so it will appear again soon!
Kerosene – Just a reminder as we are entering the Autumn/Winter period, please take a check on your Kero requirements & place any orders.
For electricity enquiries please contact Stuart in the office or email – stuart@ofg.org.uk for any other enquiries please visit our CONTACT page
Your Farm Fuel Q&A: 29 October 2025
A factual update on the key questions impacting your fuel costs.
Q: What is the current price trend for crude oil and where is it trading today?
A: The global benchmark, ICE Brent Crude, is currently trading around $64.22 per barrel. The longer-term trend, visible on the chart below, shows a significant decline since the mid-2022 highs, with the price generally remaining rangebound between $60 and $70 per barrel throughout the second half of 2025.
The overall pressure remains downward as global oil supply continues to grow faster than demand.
Q: Why are we seeing such low crude prices when we often hear about geopolitical instability?
A: The market is currently grappling with a structural oversupply, which is overriding most geopolitical concerns, including the recent US sanctions.
Non-OPEC+ Production: Record high production from non-OPEC+ nations, dubbed the "American quintet" (US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina), is flooding the market.
Slower Demand: Global oil demand growth is slowing significantly, hampered by a harsher macroeconomic climate and increasing adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles, which acts as a heavy cap on prices.
Market Surplus: Analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms the oil market has been in surplus since the start of 2025, with large stock builds putting downward pressure on prices.
Q: Is the price of Red Diesel (Gas Oil) falling in line with the crude oil price?
A: Not entirely. The price of the refined product you purchase, like Red Diesel, is driven by its own market (the 'crack spread' or refining margin) which is currently stronger than crude.
Diesel/Distillate Shortage Risk: Recent escalations, including attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, have cut middle distillate production and exports. Since Russia is a major supplier of diesel-type fuels, this disruption has caused a spike in diesel and jet fuel cracks globally.
Farmer Impact: This means the price of the finished product (Gas Oil) remains elevated relative to the underlying cost of crude oil, reducing the cost saving you might expect from a $64 Brent price. Refineries are making higher margins on diesel at the moment.
Q: What is the expected outlook for prices over the winter fuel buying season?
A: The outlook is for continued weakness, but with potential short-term volatility.
Forecasts: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude prices to continue falling, averaging around $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, and potentially dropping further toward $52 in 2026.
OPEC+ Strategy: The OPEC+ coalition is set to meet on November 2nd. They are expected to continue their strategy of slowly increasing output to regain lost market share. This measured, modest increase (around 137,000 bpd) is an attempt to prevent prices from accelerating too quickly, while still acknowledging the oversupply risk.
Key Risk: The primary upside risk remains the geopolitical situation. While sanctions on Russian firms have caused some short-term volatility, the expectation of a sustained market surplus suggests any rallies above the $70 mark would likely be short-lived.
