Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 12th June 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Jun 12
- 4 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Futures have trended lower in recent weeks, though signs of stabilisation are emerging.
This has been driven more by currency movements – specifically a weaker dollar and stronger sterling – than by any fundamental shift.
In Argentina the harvest is 89% complete, with yields exceeding expectation.
Crush margins remain attractive, supported by strong farmer selling, though this is expected to ease as forward premiums of £15-£17/T encourage on-farm storage.
US planting is 90% complete and crop conditions are rated 68% good to excellent.
While some regions still contend with excess moisture, overall crop health is stable and improving and warmer, drier weather would further benefit development.
Meanwhile uncertainty around EUDR compliance continues to weigh on sentiment, limiting winter coverage across the market.
Prices have seen significant reductions over the past 3 months, primarily driven by the influx of Canadian canola into the UK market.
This shift has been largely attributed to the geopolitical tensions between Canada and China, which have disrupted traditional trade flows.
With China no longer a key destination, Canadian supply has increasingly targeted the UK and EU market, putting downward pressure on domestic rapeseed values in order to remain competitive.
The forward price direction will largely depend on the volume of additional Canadian canola vessels arriving in Europe.
Soybean meal futures continue to soften and rapeseed meal still appears to be searching for demand.
Currently the soy/rape price ratio sits at approximately 71% compared to the 65% threshold typically viewed as the point of value.
This means soybean meal continues to offer relatively better value despite the recent attractiveness of rapemeal prices.
Argentina continues to be the primary origin of supply into the UK, supported by strong crush margins which typically signal good availability.
However this season the usual flow of product has not been seen due to increased demand from Middle Eastern buyers.
Despite the tighter supply picture, the market has remained stable in recent weeks.
As Argentina nears the end of its harvest, the government export concessions are set to expire at the end of the month.
This is expected to slow farmer selling, which could limit availability further and support current price levels in the short term.
US ethanol production margins remain positive supporting strong domestic inclusion of distillers in livestock rations.
While there are ongoing concerns regarding potential vessel tariffs, these are primarily expected to impact larger vessels and container shipments, as such the risk to bulk feed shipments remains minimal at this stage.
However, in order to remain competitive within the broader protein market, further price adjustments maybe necessary to secure the inclusion of distillers in UK rations.
Domestically, uncertainty continues surrounding government support.
In the absence of a resolution by the 16th June, the closure process is expected to commence.
Recent weather continues to raise concerns over this year’s crop.
British Sugar have indicated that the winter supply offer may be higher in price than last year, reflecting the crop uncertainties.
Currently import programmes for winter appear limited mainly to the South West, with no wider arrangements confirmed, suggesting tight availability ahead.
This week has brought a mixed outlook for global grain markets.
Wheat futures are currently under pressure, driven by improving crop conditions and a more favourable weather outlook in several key growing areas.
Particular attention is being paid to China, the Black Sea region, Australia and central to northern Europe, where hot and dry conditions persist.
China’s crop performance is of heightened importance and any significant losses there could prompt increased wheat imports, potentially disrupting global trade flows.
China has been largely absent from the market in recent months, so any re-entry would be impactful.
The USDA’s latest crop progress report showed another increase in the percentage of crops rated good to excellent.
However subsequent reports from Russia have indicated crop conditions there notably worse than those reflected by the USDA.
Speculative funds continue to hold sizeable net short positions, maintaining a broadly bearish tone across the wheat market.
The UK market remains uncompetitive for exports.
Domestic crop conditions are improving and with harvest approaching, there will be pressure on farmers to clear old crop stocks.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
In 2015, Islamic State threatened 80 lashes for anyone caught watching Real Madrid play Barcelona and FIFA has 18 more members than the UN.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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