Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 12th March 2026
- Orion Farming Group
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Due to geopolitical developments particularly in the Middle East, there has been a notable degree of volatility in global commodity markets.
Due to the immediate sharp increase in crude oil prices, this has pushed up freight rates as well as increasing production and logistics costs across the supply chain.
There have also been some minor logistical disruptions reported in South America, with isolated vessel delays and occasional redirection of shipments.
Global soyabean supply remains broadly comfortable, although market direction continues to be driven more by sentiment and external factors than by underlying availability.
Private estimates suggest a modest tightening in US carryout to around 9.36MMT, with global stocks also expected to edge lower to about 124.75MMT following adjustments to South American production.
The Brazilian harvest is nearing completion and while demand remains uncertain, particularly around the potential for China to purchase 8MMT of US beans, which could provide near-term support to futures markets.
Initially pricing was being driven by the shutdown at Erith but the market is now being influenced by broader geopolitical developments and the movements in the energy complex.
As a result traditional S&D demand fundamentals seems to be playing a lesser role in short-term price direction.
Much of the current volatility is linked to the developments in the Middle East.
Should there be a swift de-escalation in the region, there is potential for some easing in new-crop values.
However, the old crop market is likely to remain supported given the significant inverse and general tightness across nearby feed materials.
The market remains firm with nearby availability still restricted as most nearby tonnage is already committed.
Attention is shifting to the upcoming ASA May programme, which should improve supply but service existing demand rather than creating surplus.
As a result any easing in pricing is likely to be gradual and logistics driven.
At origin, strong demand and supportive Argentinian crush margins continue to underpin values, with elevated freight costs remaining a key bullish factor.
The market remains firm supported by the recent spike in crude oil price values, which has helped sustain stronger freight rate values, which in turn is reinforcing overall price firmness.
In addition, ongoing biofuel regulations in the US are continuing to reduce output, as more corn is directed towards ethanol production efficiencies resulting in less grains.
As a result export volumes remain constrained.
Spot availability is still limited and little evidence of excess supply that could pressure prices lower.
Looking to the summer period, current European pricing combined with freight costs appear unlikely to encourage import flows into the UK, leaving Egyptian origin material covering much of the additional demand.
British Sugar is yet to release its summer offer and a number of end users remain cautious and are holding back from the market while they wait for clearer pricing signals.
Wheat markets initially rallied on geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices before retreating as crude oil eased.
Despite the pullback prices remained supported by elevated energy costs and potential logistical disruption across the Black Sea and Middle East/North African regions.
There is ample global supplies expected to limit sustained upside.
According to the latest USDA outlook, there is no major changes to the 2025/26 US wheat balance sheet.
Globally, wheat supplies are set to increase marginally to 1.1BMT, with higher production from Ukraine and Kazakhstan partly offsetting a reduction in Australia.
Overall, while geopolitical factors are currently driving short-term volatility, the underlying global wheat balance remains well supplied
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….Over 7,000 species of plants and animals have been cultivated for human consumption, but just four crops – rice, wheat, corn and potatoes – make up two thirds of everything we eat and Smoky bacon Pringles, prawn cocktail Walkers and McCoy’s sizzling BBQ crisps are all suitable for vegans.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Currency Trends as of 04.02.26 Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
