Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 17th April 2025

Orion Farming Group
Apr 17
3 min read

The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.

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Hipro Soya

Nearby availability continues to tighten up and so prices are tightening and this is likely to be the case until the arrival of new crop shipments in the first half of May.
The Brazilian harvest if 90% complete and the Argentinian is starting in earnest at around 2.6% complete.
The USDA report kept production figures for South America unchanged for this season, but a small increase to Brazil’s production from last season – overall global ending stocks for soybeans came in as expected.
US planting has begun at 3% now complete – a few concerns around flooded areas, but it’s still early enough in the season from which it can recover.
Expectation is that Chinese demand will move to South America (mainly Brazil), or potentially look at other protein sources, such as Sunflowers.
South American premiums have already firmed in anticipation of demand.
With the tariff suspension for most US trade partners, Chicago futures did rally.
Uncertainty though continues around whether importing countries may target US soybeans with reciprocal tariffs if trade negotiations fail.

Rapemeal

Prices stabilised in the past week, with pressure still on the market from Canadian canola coming into the UK/EU market.
Imports of rapeseed into the EU continue to rise, as domestic supply remains tight.
May/Jul and Aug/Oct prices are offering better value vs next winter, dur to the lack of liquidity in the paper markets for that far forward.
Nearby availability is still a little bit tighter, but there seems to be a good amount left to move for May onwards.
Erith is expected to undergo maintenance sometime in the May/Jul period, which could put a base in the market if they go offline for a large period of time like last year.

Soya hulls

Northern availability is set to ease in the next few weeks as shipments start to come in, though there is still limited availability for the next month as most of these boats are already well sold.
Availability in the south is still very tight and is expected to stay so until Jun/Jul, when demand will ease off further as crushing continues in Argentina post-harvest.

Distillers

Availability nearby is improving as shipments of maize distillers are in and demand for Vivergo and Ensus is calming down.
There’s been a summer offer for Ensus distillers, but nothing yet from Vivergo.
Prices on Ensus and imported maize distillers still look reasonable in the mid-protein markets, but imported wheat distillers offers for the summer are pretty expensive.
Something to note is that the US are trying to bring in additional fees on Chinese-flagged cargo vessels that dock at US ports, which would impact on maize distillers and gluten shipments.
Currently European sources of these products are more expensive, so it’s not helping with forward shipment planning.

Sugarbeet

There are some limited offers on imported sugarbeet, but they look very expensive against other fibre options.

Wheat/Barley

The past week was a bit calmer, with small price movements.
There was a USDA WASDE report last week which turned out to be a bit of a non-event, especially against the backdrop of Trump’s tariffs.
Global ending stocks for wheat were in line with expectation at 260.7MMT, though with cuts to imports to China and exports by Russia/Kazakhstan.
Globally, weather is mixed, with good conditions across Europe, but the US is still experiencing heat stress in some regions and excess rain in others.
Additionally, US exports have slowed, whilst India is set to produce a record wheat crop of 115.4MMT.

And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….

A man arrested in 2015 for trespassing at the Budweiser brewery in St Louis was called Bud Weisser and Tony Blair was the first serving prime minister to visit California.

Notes:

All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.

For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139