Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 19th June 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Jun 19
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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The main news in the soya market in the past week came on Friday with the US announcing increase to their biofuel mandate and also the attacks on Iran by Israel.
The US government proposal that oil refiners must increase their usage of biofuels in fuels took the market by surprise and so some of the increases in soy oil prices was as a result of this news.
With higher oil prices, higher soybean prices were seen as a result, (there will be increased demand for beans for crushing).
Soymeal prices didn’t move higher, as the oil will be making more money from the crushers point of view.
The escalation between Israel and Iran also sent crude oil prices up, which also helped to continue to push up other vegetable oils, such as soya and rapeseed.
If this conflict continues or escalates further and oil and bean prices continue to rise, meal could also be pulled higher.
The US crop continues to be in a good condition, with 66% rated good to excellent.
The Argentinian crop is pretty much harvested with the official estimate raised to 50.3MMT.
The USDA WASDE report issued last Thursday kept all US and South American soya estimates the same.
If a hiccup is seen in conditions in the coming months, then the markets could rally strongly (funds remain heavily short of soymeal).
With the increase in soybean prices, due in part to the reasons mentioned above, Matif rapeseed and rapeseed oil values also climbed higher.
Rapemeal prices held steady to a little lower, as crushers should be able to gain more margin from the oil portion of the crush.
In the background of this is still the potential closure of the UK ethanol plants, which if realised would mean more demand for rapemeal and sunflower.
The nearby market in the UK is tighter again as shippers sell out of stock and await their next shipments.
Supply is still tight at origin in South America, with crushers oversold due to global demand.
Additionally, with the lack of sugarbeet in the UK for the summer, there has been higher demand for hulls and other fibre options – this is still likely to be an issue for the winter, as the planted area for the next season is smaller.
The market has continued uncertainty as Vivergo announced they had postponed it’s deadline for closure until the 25th June as there have been some talks between them and the UK government.
If nothing is agreed or done by then, Vivergo have advised they will cease buying feedstocks and begin the process of closing.
It’s interesting to note that Vivergo has actually only been profitable for 6 months since 2021.
Prices on imported maize distillers have held relatively steady.
It’s expected that imported distillers prices are unlikely to push higher if UK plants close, but a demand move into other UK produced proteins could be seen.
Imported wheat distillers still look expensive.
No hints of any new crop offers on British sugarbeet as Trident opt to hold fire until the crop is more secure, given the smaller acreage across the UK and Europe and also the initial dry weather in the spring.
A mixed week on the London futures market, with the market weakening initially before finding strength at the end of the week.
The market eased due to improving crop conditions in France and the US, which is good news as harvest approaches.
Though there were some tenders from major importing countries which gave a base to the market.
The escalation between Israel and Iran provided some support to the market, in a more generalised way, but gave back most of the gains on Monday.
Future prices nearby are still at a disparity with physical on-farm prices, with availability still tricky for both wheat and barley until new crop.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Only 30% of the Sahara desert is sand and dragonflies can migrate 11,000 miles a year.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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