Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 25th June 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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As a result of crude oil moving higher, so did soya oil prices increase and also meal prices eased a bit further, as crushers are making more margin with the higher oil increase.
Given yesterday’s ceasefire there may be a correction in the markets, (oil lower and meal higher as the crush margin shifts), with lower crude oil prices, but if it re-escalates, it is likely to go the other way.
It will be a tumultuous time until there is a more concrete de-escalation.
US soya crop conditions remain unchanged week on week, at 66% rated good-excellent, slightly back on last year (67%), but still in a good position with US forecasts looking non-threating.
Funds remain long soybeans and oil but short on meal and we are not out of the woods yet with the US crop, by any means.
The critical month for pod-filling is August and historically these are the more volatile trading months.
As mentioned with soya, rapeseed oil increased in value, putting a little more pressure on meal prices.
Germany also proposed changes to their biodiesel production to eliminate double counting incentives, which would be bullish for seed/oil demand there.
All these parts are more bearish for meal for now, but as with soya a correction could be seen in meal prices, due to movements in crush margins.
As mentioned in previous weeks, if the UK ethanol plants close, that could put more demand into rapemeal and put a base into prices.
The nearby position in the UK remains tight, with shippers well sold and awaiting further shipments.
Hulls are still tight at origin as well, as crushers still seem oversold generally.
It seem unlikely that there will be too much lower on summer prices.
Overall, prices still look reasonable against other fibre options and sugarbeet is unlikely to drop in price for the winter.
Slightly firmer prices this week on imported maize distillers as currency slid back.
US ethanol production has eased back a little from the highs before, but still remains higher than last year and margins remain positive.
US ethanol production looks set to continue strongly, which should keep imported maize distillers prices under some pressure.
Imported wheat distillers remain expensive, due to minimal availability across the UK and Europe.
The only bullish factor remaining is UK distiller/ethanol plants
The deadline for Vivergo to have government support is today, the 25th, if nothing is agreed they will cease buying feedstocks and begin the process of closing the plant.
The same is also true of Ensus.
Imported sugarbeet remains the only available option for the summer.
No news of a British sugarbeet price, as acreage across the UK and Europe was down and suppliers are wary of overselling when the crop is not secure.
It seems likely that it will be lower than last year.
London futures rallied last week alongside Chicago wheat futures, as funds opted to cover in short positions due to increased nerves around global crops and the geopolitical tensions.
Hot weather across the UK and France last week raised concerns about the impact on crops and Russian spring wheat planting remains behind last year.
The beginning of this week has seen corrections back down in futures markets as the US winter wheat harvest was able to make some more progress (19% complete vs 10% last week) – though it still remains behind the 5 year average of 28%.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
26 tons of clothing are abandoned each year at the start line of the Boston Marathon and in 2017, Bentley launched a new off-road model fitted out for falconers, complete with a perch and a gauntlet compartment.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Historical Product Prices
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/24 to 25/06/25 (£/t)
'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 25/06/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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