Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 09/07/25
- Orion Farming Group
- Jul 9
- 3 min read
Average prices overall have risen over the last week as indicated in the pricing graph. Deliveries remain between 2 – 5 working days, dependant on the Supplier & area they cover.
Ford Fuels have advised that they now stock HVO Red & HVO White at their Membury depot, full details are on their website. Currently they supply Orion with a weekly price on a Friday.
Fuel Price Outlook: A Tug-of-War at $70pb
The oil market has spent the past week digesting a major supply decision, with prices firming up to test the upper end of the previously forecasted range. The tense stability has evolved into a clear tug-of-war, with a confirmed boost in oil production pulling against persistent geopolitical risks, leaving prices hovering around the key $70 per barrel level.
Where We Are Now
The market has absorbed the key news of the week from the OPEC+ meeting. After trading in the high $60s, Brent Crude is now at approximately $70 a barrel. The downward pressure from last week's surprise build in U.S. inventories has been offset by ongoing geopolitical concerns, leading prices to creep higher within the $65-$72 range we anticipated.
The Key Short-Term Drivers
The market is currently being pulled by two distinct and powerful narratives. On one hand, the promise of more oil is capping gains. On the other, the fear of future disruptions is preventing a significant slide.
Pushing Prices Down:
Confirmed OPEC+ Production Hike: The most significant development is the decision by a core group of OPEC+ nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, to accelerate their production increases. They will add 548,000 barrels per day to the market in August, a more aggressive pace than in previous months. This new supply is the primary factor limiting a sustained price rally.
Long-Term Supply Outlook: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reiterated its long-term forecast that significant global oil inventory builds will put downward pressure on prices into 2026. This tempers some of the market's bullishness.
Economic Headwinds: Concerns over a potential global economic slowdown and the uncertain impact of new U.S. trade tariffs continue to cast a shadow over future fuel demand.
Providing a Floor for Prices:
Lingering Geopolitical Risk: Unresolved tensions in the Middle East, particularly related to Iran, remain the key supportive factor. The market has priced in a "fear premium" that is preventing prices from falling, even with the news of more supply. Traders remain wary of any event that could threaten supply routes.
Expected U.S. Inventory Draw: After last week's surprise increase, market consensus is for this week's EIA inventory report to show a decrease in U.S. crude stockpiles. A drop in inventories would signal robust current demand and would be a bullish signal.
What to Expect Over the Next Week
With the OPEC+ decision now made, market attention will pivot to demand data and any shifts in the geopolitical landscape. The weekly EIA report will be a crucial indicator of near-term consumption in the world's largest oil consumer.
The fundamental picture suggests a well-supplied market, which should act as a ceiling on prices. However, the persistent geopolitical risk is providing solid support. This push-pull dynamic is likely to continue, leading to choppy price action.
The most likely scenario for the coming week is for Brent Crude to trade within a range of $67 to $73 a barrel. The new supply from OPEC+ makes a breakout above this range difficult, but the underlying political fragility makes a significant drop equally unlikely for now.
Fuel price outlook section provided by Investing.com and Demand Economics.
Please note that any opinions expressed in this update are sources from market information / analysis and do not represent views of Orion Farming Group. Orion Farming Group accepts no responsibility for any Member decisions made on the basis of information provided in the weekly fuel update.
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