Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 10th December 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- 5 days ago
- 3 min read
There has been a continued decrease in the average Orion prices over the last seven days.
Deliveries: Between 2 – 10 working days, dependant on the Supplier and the area they cover, suppliers are getting busier with their winter domestic trade.
Kerosene – Please check on your tanks for any requirements, with lead times increasing it may be difficult to get “Quick” deliveries. One supplier already advising deliveries by 30th December.
Christmas is now only two weeks away & suppliers are busy, advice would be to place any orders you require ASAP.
For electricity enquiries please contact Stuart in the office or email – stuart@ofg.org.uk for any other enquiries please visit our CONTACT page
Below are details of the Fuel Suppliers opening times over the Christmas & New Year period. The Orion Office will be closed from 4pm on 23rd December & re-opening on Monday 5th January 2026 at 8.30am. If you require any fuel orders during this time then you can contact the suppliers direct giving them your full membership details to enable an order to be placed
Christmas Hours for Orion Farming Group Fuel Suppliers
Your Farm Fuel Q&A: 10th December 2025
A factual update on the key questions impacting your fuel costs.
Q: Where is Brent Crude trading today and is the price firming up or weakening?
A: The global benchmark, ICE Brent Crude Futures, is showing resistance to falling sharply, trading today (Dec 10, 2025) around $61.99 to $62.11 per barrel. This is a slight rebound after a sharper decline over the previous two days.
Key Price Level: Prices are now firmly challenging the crucial $60/bbl level. The overall momentum for crude remains downward due to fundamental oversupply fears, but market signals of a drawdown in US oil inventories are providing brief support.
IEA Forecast: Major agencies, including the IEA, continue to reinforce a long-term bearish outlook, projecting a significant global supply surplus of over 4 million barrels per day in 2026, which sets a low ceiling on prices.
Q: What is the main disconnect between the low crude price and my Red Diesel cost right now?
A: The primary problem is the Refining Indicator Margin (RIM), which remains historically high, meaning the cost of turning crude into refined diesel is inflated.
Refining Premium: Data shows the Refining Indicator Margin for Q42025 to date is approximately $17.8/bbl—significantly higher than the$7.2/bbl margin seen in Q4 2024.
Reason: This high margin reflects a tight global market for middle distillates (diesel and heating oil), caused by low refinery capacity utilisation and strong seasonal winter demand. The high premium refiners charge is preventing the benefit of the low $62/bbl crude price from being fully passed on to the farm gate price for Red Diesel.
Q: What is the outlook for prices in Q1 2026, and what should farmers be watching?
A: The outlook for Q1 2026 is bearish for crude, with forecasts pointing toward prices in the $50/bbl
Forecasts: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent to average around $55 per barrel in Q1 2026, with some analysts predicting a decline toward $50/bbl by the end of the year. This reflects the significant expected global inventory build.
The Big Variable: The key factor for the Red Diesel price specifically will be winter weather. A milder-than-normal winter in Europe and the US would drastically reduce demand for heating oil.
This would:
Eliminate the current distillate shortage.
Cause the high Refining Margin to collapse.
Allow the Red Diesel price to finally align with the low crude oil price.
