Orion Farming Group Fuel Update 13/11/25
- Orion Farming Group
- Nov 13
- 3 min read
There has been a gradual rise in the average Orion prices over the last seven days.
Deliveries: Between 2 – 7 working days, dependant on the Supplier and the area they cover , some suppliers are starting to get busier with the colder weather & their winter domestic trade starting up.
The graph detailing average prices is temporarily unavailable however we are looking to re-design this so it will appear again soon!
Kerosene – Just a reminder as we are entering the Autumn/Winter period, please take a check on your Kero requirements & place any orders.
For electricity enquiries please contact Stuart in the office or email – stuart@ofg.org.uk for any other enquiries please visit our CONTACT page
Your Farm Fuel Q&A: 13 November 2025
A factual update on the key questions impacting your fuel costs.
Q: What is the current price of crude oil and what does the long-term chart suggest?
A: the price of Brent Crude Oil Futures (LCO) is currently trading at $63.04 per barrel.
The multi-year chart shows:
A continuation of the downward trend since the mid-2022 peak.
The price is holding just above the $60/bbl support level, remaining in the broad $60 to $70 range that has defined the second half of 2025.
The overall message is a market under structural downward pressure but resisting a sharp collapse.
Q: Why are UK farm fuel prices not falling further, given the low crude oil price of $63/bbl?
A: The primary disconnect continues to be the Refining Margin (or 'crack spread') for middle distillates, which includes Red Diesel (Gas Oil).
Refined Product Scarcity: Despite the crude oil surplus, the market for finished diesel products remains tight globally. A combination of lower refinery runs (due to maintenance and unplanned outages) and geopolitical disruptions (e.g., attacks on refining infrastructure) has limited supply.
Farmer Impact: Refineries are charging a high premium to turn the cheap crude into expensive diesel. This premium is being passed directly to the consumer, overriding the benefit of the lower Brent crude price and keeping your Red Diesel costs elevated as you enter the key winter buying period.
Q: How is the value of the Pound Sterling affecting the cost of my fuel?
A: The value of the Pound remains a significant headwind for UK fuel buyers. Currency Drag: Crude oil is priced in US Dollars. If the Pound weakens against the Dollar, it requires more Pounds to purchase the same Dollar-denominated barrel of oil. Monetary Policy Context: While the Bank of England's recent decision to hold the Bank Rate at 4% (as of Nov 5th) aims for stability, the currency market's volatility means that a potential drop in the crude price might be entirely cancelled out by a drop in the exchange rate, leaving your local price unchanged or even higher.
Q: What is the key market risk for the rest of November and early December?
A: The key risk is a mild winter combined with a potential softening of refining margins.
Current Weakness: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted a record global oil surplus is building, visible by the surge in oil held in floating storage. This oversupply is already putting extreme pressure on the market.
The Turning Point: If the European and North American winter is milder than expected, demand for heating oil (which is a distillate like Red Diesel) will decrease sharply. This, coupled with the return of refining capacity following maintenance, would likely cause the currently high refining margins to collapse.
Outlook: A collapse in the refining margin would be the catalyst that finally forces the price of Red Diesel to fall more rapidly and catch up with the low underlying crude oil price. Traders are reportedly "fading both sides" of the Brent range, suggesting an increasing vulnerability to a move below $60/bbl should the winter prove mild.
