Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 3rd July 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Jul 3
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Another week of easing prices as continued pressure on Chicago futures was seen, as funds continued to add to their short position on meal.
Good weather in the US has been keeping soybeans in decent condition, holding at 66% good-excellent.
With the bean price depressed and oil prices holding relatively steady now, meal prices can continue to slide.
Expectation is for a glut of soya meal from both South America and the US and this is already priced into the market.
The latest USDA acreage report for soybeans came in lower than trade expectations, but US stocks were also above trade expectations – so overall a fairly neutral/bearish tone on soyabeans.
Prices have come under a little more pressure from soya, mainly for Liverpool prices, while Erith has held the prices firmer.
Erith is on maintenance and thus reduced capacity until the 24th July so prices for the next couple of weeks have firmed, though there is plenty of imported and Liverpool product is around so currently there are no concerns around overall supply.
Once maintenance is complete, Erith are keen sellers and competing hard against imported offers.
Fundamentally, seed supply in the UK and Europe is still limited and unlikely to improve in he coming seasons, but obviously more Canadian seed and meal is coming across.
Canada is estimating that the 2025 canola acreage will be down 2.5%.
Rapemeal will still need to compete somewhat against hipro soya, sunflowers and distillers, (though the latter shouldn’t be an issue).
Prices remain at a similar level, with supply still on the tight side nearby, for UK markets.
Demand has stayed robust both here and at origin and crushers are already well sold.
Prices do look competitive against other fibres, so downside may be limited.
The market is till waiting for news on the future of both Vivergo and Ensus.
Negotiations are apparently ongoing with the government and despite the deadline Vivergo had set being passed, they have said closure is a certainty.
Vivergo has however started the consultation process with staff in the event talks are not productive.
Imported prices on imported maize distillers have moved back a little, with the US expected to have a good availability due to the increased demand there for ethanol in biofuels.
Production slowed a little due to higher stocks, but margins remained positive and demand also remains good.
Imported wheat distillers are holding steady, with minimal change until anything is heard from Vivergo.
Prices remained stagnant for imported product, as home produced remains unavailable.
There is talk that prices for the autumn will be up quite significantly, though no offers have been given as yet, as they seem likely to hold off until the crop is more secure.
Given the extended hot and dry period currently being experienced, questions have been raised over yield expectations in the UK and Europe.
It has been uncompetitive against hulls and looks likely to remain so!
London futures market continued to slide in the last week, driven by harvest progression across the northern hemisphere and a sluggish export market, (mainly in the US where Chicago futures are leading the pressure downwards).
The UK harvest is expected to get going in earnest with barley this week, though tight supply is still being seen right now with the odd parcels of grain coming up as farmers look to clear sheds.
The US winter what harvest is now at 37% which is still behind the 5 year average, but seems likely they are now able to make some meaningful progress.
The latest USDA acreage and stocks report was viewed as neutral/bearish, with acreage and stocks above trade expectations.
The IGC increased their world wheat production by 2.3MMT, mainly due to increased production in India and Romania.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Seahorses are the only fish with a neck and the only family of animals where the male gives birth and crocodiles have no lips and can hold their breath for an hour.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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