Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 5th June 2025
- Orion Farming Group
- Jun 5
- 3 min read
The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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US plantings are now at 84% complete, with emergence ahead of the 5 year average and 67% rated good-excellent.
Nearby prices remain more supported as continued tighter logistics are being seen out of Argentina due to the rains delaying deliveries into crush plants.
The Argentinian harvest is 81% complete, but remains behind the 5 year average, though yields are still good.
The favourable Argentine export taxes on oilseed are due to return to normal from the 1st July, so the market is weighing up whether a push on exports of beans might be seen pre-July, as after the tax increase margins are likely to narrow and so slowing crushing and exports.
In the US crush margins are already fairly poor and it’s maintenance season so there’s minimal pressure from there.
Meal prices moved back a little though the market currently remains fairly stagnant.
UK crop conditions have slipped back to 52% good-excellent (from 59% last month), due to the dry conditions, though improved rains should help to stabilise the crops here and in Europe.
Canadian exports continue to keep some pressure on summer prices, but winter is not yet impacted as prices don’t compete into the UK/EU market.
Though crushers and shippers in the UK are keeping their options open, with Erith still offering a discounted price for meal/pellet option.
Also worth noting that if the UK ethanol plants close, there could be more of a demand move into rapemeal as a UK produced protein feed.
Prices are holding steady as hulls remain difficult to source from Argentina, due to crushers having oversold.
It looks likely to stay that way for the coming months.
Imported maize distillers held relatively steady.
In the US more ethanol plants finished maintenance and margins remain positive, though tightening up.
Imported wheat distillers remain expensive and in limited supply/locations.
No news on the future of Ensus and Vivergo, but given they were already struggling with low ethanol production, the influx of cheap US ethanol looks likely to be the final nail in the coffin unless the government steps in.
No change to the market, some imported material is offered for the summer in the north.
Given the current dry spell, it’s not surprising that there are no indications on next season’s British sugarbeet pellets.
Futures markets in the UK and US slid back as improved weather forecasts helped traders have more confidence in the incoming crops.
US winter wheat conditions did improve slightly to 52% good-excellent, whilst spring wheat improved to 50%.
Russia’s wheat crop is estimated to be around 81MMT, which is still lower than last year but an improvement from previous estimates.
Russia has stated that export taxes on wheat would continue but have not specified how much.
UK crops remain in poorer condition, with winter wheat rated 36% good excellent (vs 60% at the end of April) and spring wheat at 50%.
For barley winter crops are at 48% good-excellent (vs 68% at the end of April) and spring crops at 54%.
Still also lingering over the UK market is the future of the ethanol plants, especially Vivergo which takes a chunk of UK wheat..
The government have made no indications of stepping in to assist.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
More people in Britain work in the sandwich industry than in agriculture and the quinine in tonic water glows a brilliant blue under UV light.
Notes:
All figures in this report are provided by KW and commentary by GLW Feeds. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/24 to 04/06/25 (£/t)
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Currency Trends as of 04/06/2025. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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